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Posted by: Tom Veale Member Level  Date: Monday, June 07, 2004 7:30:49 AM
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Well, we've put another week behind us, along with the first five months of the year. Our presidential election is no more decided today than a month ago, so most likely we'll have that bit of uncertainty following us for a while yet. With the market's volatility on the low side, I would imagine that long term investors, short term traders and AIM users alike are feeling a bit frustrated.

With 5 months of essentially flat markets, where should we be looking? Interest rates have been rising (both long and short term) in anticipation of the next move by the FED. Earnings have also been rising and we've been receiving some good mid-Quarter revisions from some companies. It would appear that general business conditions are improving.

Where will investors go if they find themselves frustrated with poor overall performance from the stock market? Will they retreat to Bonds even with the risks involved? Will they hoard Gold and its paper equals with the acknowledged rise in inflation? Will they return to the "value" segment of the stock market hoping for protection should things get ugly in the world?

The Savings and Loan division of VIEW would approve of a short term interest rate increase. They'd welcome the improvement in Money Market Rates. I'm guessing that many companies that never paid dividends in the past are contemplating it now. Those that do pay should continue the trend of increasing payouts as profits allow.

As time marches forward, we get closer to the great demographic shift that will be taking place in the U.S. Baby Boomers will increasingly look like Old Farts. Business will shift with this. The "boomlets" that have occurred will help fill in gaps. Healthcare and related geriatrics related businesses are going to feel the pressure. So will healthcare costs, insurances, etc. This is going to be a tough one to get through.


Terrorists will, by their own doing create an economic surge of its own. While traditional efforts will continue, new Technology will step in as the watchdogs of this current era. New ways of scrutinizing everyone and everything will be developed.

The last comprehensive article I read on Energy indicated that about the time the Baby Boomers retire, world energy will have peaked in production. Now "peak" doesn't mean "stop" but it does mean an end to expansion. It will plateau for a time and then start a long decline. Energy's about to become more precious with time. Are you preparing for this?

A whole world's worth of Consumerism will kick in as the East starts down the path of economic growth.

Lots of things to think about!!!

Best regards, Tom



Port Washington, WI 53074
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