InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[Eric]

3G Sales Estimates for 2008/2009 ...

Chris,

<< Eric I recently saw some numbers that said 3G sales total for 2008 would be 350 million and 2009 would look like 550 million. Do those numbers line up with your thinking? >>

They line up pretty well but maybe a bit aggressive if you define '3G' as CDMA2000 1xEV-DO + 3GSM UMTS (WCDMA/HSPA) as most do. They look quite reasonable if data cards as well as handsets are included in the mix.

In InterDigital and Qualcomm parlance, however, you add in cdma2000 1xRTT ersatz 3G handsets, so those numbers would be low from an InterDigital perspective. Below are Gartner/Credit Suisse handset and total mobile wireless device sell-in estimates from June that I think are reasonably <g> reasonable ...

'cdma' (WCDMA/HSPA + CDMA2000 ) Mobile Device Sell-In Estimates (Credit Suisse)

                         2007    2008E    2009E    2010E 
                         ======  =======  =======  ======= 
 WCDMA/HSPA Handsets     167.9m   263.0m   391.1m   540.7m 
 CAGR 07-10E = 47.7% 
 CDMA2000 Handsets       177.9m   199.1m   196.9m   186.1m 
 CAGR 07-10E = 1.5% 
                         ------   ------   ------  ------- 
 Total 'cdma' Handsets   345.8m   462.1m   588.0m   726.8m 
 ================================================ 
 WCDMA/HSPA (Other)¹       5.1m    23.6m    39.2m 
 CDMA2000 (Other)²        31.1m    25.5m    18.7m 
 ================================================ 
 Total WCDMA/CDMA Devices 382.0m   511.1m   645.9m 
                                                             · 
 ¹ Includes modems/datacards  
 ² Includes modems/datacards, modules, and WiLL handsets  
 Source: Company data, Gartner, Credit Suisse estimates

As a sanity check, below are May estimates from Lehman Brothers (also with Gartner inputs) with the CDMA2000 numbers which are lifted from QUALCOMM and include datacards, WiLL handsets, and modules, as well as mobile wireless handsets. Their numbers match up with those from Credit Suisse rather well with a slight variance.

'cdma' (WCDMA/HSPA + CDMA2000 ) Mobile Device Sell-In Estimates (Lehman)

                         2007    2008E    2009E 
                         ======  =======  ======= 
 Total Devices            1172m   1304m    1405m 
 ================================================ 
 WCDMA/HSPA                174m    279m     399m 
 CDMA2000                  209m    223m     236m 
                           ----    -----    ---- 
 Combined 'cdma' devices   383m    502m     635m

Cheers,

- Eric -