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that's a tough one $w...i wish gloomy buTT
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Sunday, June 08, 2008 1:41:08 AM
that's a tough one $w...i wish gloomy buTT was here to help me out....hehehe....
the first thing i watch for a sign of the bottom is the old reliable $nya50r....when only 20% of all the stocks in the nyse are above thier 50 day moving average you can bet that a bottom is near.... or at least it's a good sign...
here is the first chart....6 1/2 years
$nya50r zoomed in on the last 2 lows
as we approach $nya50r reaching oversold (20) i will look to see what support is below...right now the first line in the sand IMO is the lower trendline on the weekly chart...if the $nya50r gets close to 20 before this trendline is breached then i think it could mark the tradeable bottom.
note the dotted line at 11750 ...that will be clearer after looking at the monthly ....first though let's watch this weekly lower trendline
now we get to the monthly to show long term support....some will say that history this old will have no bearing on today's market...i say BS....look where it bounced from in jan and march of this year...if the $nya50r is nearing 20 when we aproach this dotted line then i will be thinking that this will mark the tradeable bottom.
now for the daily...i had to adjust the fibs because they just didn't work where i have had em....da mentioned that such a large sell of friday is bound to be overdone and a relief rally is due...da is a berry smart trader and has been nailing the little bounces and drops like a gunslinger....he might just get his bounce on monday... :) >AND< our beloved bozzo has mentioned 12,200 as support as well....we'll see...i'm afraid that a lot of joe sixpacks will look at the market this weekend and start pulling thier 401k's out....
sooooo....i have no idea where the bottom is....i will be watching all of the above for clues as this plays out....and most importantly IDKS and that's a fact....nobody knows!!... NOBODY!!!
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