Lightwave Logic Inc (LWLG)

[tedpeele]

KCC, Let's start with the basics:

I know this is a BIG IF for you, but IF he had not said they are 'on-track' with their fiscal year goals, would you still conclude?:
#2 is checked off
#3 expecting licensing deal in 1H23

#2 is beta demo evaluations by potential customers per Richard. Dr Lebby didn't say they are testing demos now, and seemed to be saying they have to have reliability data before the demos happen, so how can those be checked off already?
#3 the letter says in '2023', so where are you getting 'we were just told to expect the first licensing deal in 1H23'?

NOW FOR WHAT YOU SEEM TO SEE AS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EVIDENCE THAT THE 2022 GOALS WILL BE MET:

Looking at his statement:

we outlined a number of yearly goals and we are pleased to report that we are on-track with those goals

This is a strong argument in favor of him saying there won't be any delays. However, since the ONLY thing that needed to be done by the end of this year was PDK 'results' (which doesn't even mean finalized), then he can say they are 'on-track' as long as they have PDK results and be technically correct, right? And maybe he really does think there is a decent CHANCE they will be met, and therefore being the optimistic person he is - he is sticking by it?

They only fall OFF the track if things they promised for 1H 23 don't get accomplished. BUT, you just suggested they might not when you said "If anything on that slide is getting pushed back, it is #4". So, would you agree that even you have some doubts about the trustworthiness of his statement?


Why might Dr Lebby state that they are on-track if that now is uncertain? Should we really assume he means there is a 100% chance? Not if you ask our aerospace friend who says things NEVER go as planned.

There's a way to assess the actual probability here that doesn't just blindly accept his statement of being 'on-track':

Let's just take a trip back in time to the ASM 2022 review of the 2021 goals on slide 43. How did Dr Lebby talk about the goals he missed previously? Here are some exact quotes:

"These were some tough goals"
"Obviously we didn't get 8 out of 8 but I think we did really well"
"I think we've come a long ways from last year"

He sets goals that are hard to meet, and seems satisfied as long as they made progress..BUT he didn't warn that they were not going to make them..instead it was a SHOCK to some at the 2021 ASM.

NOW, lets look at the last 4 of the 8 2021 goals he had and what he said about them:



WOW - just look at all 4 of them: The last four fiscal 2021 goals look at the same status now as they were back in June! And where they seem to be saying they will be for much of 2023, don't they? It makes one wonder just how much progress they actually have made in the entire last year.

An interesting one is the 'live trials in customer systems' that he indicates was a fiscal 2021 goal met and that they were 'engaged with customers'. There's that pesky 'engaged with phrase again! But this was as of June, 2022 - BEFORE any PDKs were completed, so what is he talking about? A little clarity from him is needed on that, no? Maybe that's what he tries to explain in the letter re the reliability testing required by potential end customers..BUT he says they lay the ground for demos in 2023? Huh? Were the older demos not good (reliable?) enough? Confusing to me, at least..

More importantly - they expected to have met their 2021 goals for Commercial Agreement With Customer and Qualification for Approved Vendor List by last June!, and here we are - HOPING it will happen by a full year after their original prediction.

Clearly, in order to avoid being accused of insanity, we have to conclude that Dr Lebby isn't great at predicting timelines, so why should we put a lot of faith into thinking that being currently 'on-track' means he will meet all of the goals this time?