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Saturday, 01/19/2019 9:59:25 PM

Saturday, January 19, 2019 9:59:25 PM

Post# of 422606
my experience with an Adcom on DVAX was as follows:
1. the stock did not "take a hit" in front of this knowledge, but it put a cap on upward stock movement and added pressure in the form of anticipation.
2. analysts, SA pundits, etc speculated on the outcome, and general outlook for that stock was positive.
3. some figures were frequently cited as to the outcome of FDA Adcoms in terms of success or failure - I think that number was about 70% success.
4. plenty of analysis of the invited parties in chat rooms. This was not my first, and they are publicly open, so the day of the Adcom was very play-by-play, including a kind of "halftime" at the lunch break as to how things were going (the stock was halted during this period).
5. given the cap on the advance and the pressure of the Adcom, a significant pop in the SP followed the successful outcome.

My personal take on Adcoms is that they are serious, but can be managed. A positive outcome becomes major fodder for the bull case since both lay and professionals have weighed in and positive content will be spinned repeatedly. Any negs can be sorted out and minimised. The FDA gets cover as well on a positive outcome. The "pre-game" on the DVAX adcom was generally favourable, and one had some concerns going into it, but it was not a terrifying nail-biter. Option players loved it, and there was much analysis of option movement in front of the event date.

Personally, I don't live in fear of adcoms if the stock's base case is strong and advocates are vocal and compelling.
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