Market Direction and Stock Trends

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Dow Jones Industrials Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 9, 2017

Analysis for the Week of December 11, 2017

As of the close of Fri. Dec. 8, 2017: The market is in a neutral position for right now. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 2433014 and 2432918. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 2422552 and 2426328. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.

We should see a trend change come this month in Dow Jones Industrials so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 2432782 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 2432782 to 2324275. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 2432916 and is trading up about 23% for the year from last year's closing of 1976260. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Thu. Dec. 7, 2017.

Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish 2434974. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 2415528

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 4th at 2453404, which was up 33 weeks from the low made back during the week of April 17th. We have been generally trading up since that low, which has been a sharp move of 5.55% percent in a stark panic type advance. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of December 4th has exceeded the previous high of 2360212 made back during the week of November 6th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 2037955 made the week of April 17th, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 10 weeks overall. Interestingly, the Dow Jones Industrials has been in a bullish phase for the past 12 months since the low established back in November 2016.

Critical support still underlies this market at 2160033 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.

Prospectively, my longstanding forecast recognizes that the current directional movement since the low made back in August 2015 has been a long-term Bullish trend in Dow Jones Industrials. This trend remain in motion as long as we hold above 1795993 on a monthly closing basis. It is incredibly important to identify the broader trend for that is the underlying tone. It is wise to take position counter-trend only with this understanding of what you are doing.

Consequently, this has been a 8 year rally in motion since 2009. Caution is advisable since this is also 8 years up from the low of given that was the major low 2009. We must pay attention to the closing for this year. If we close lower at year end, beneath 1976260, then we can see a pause in the uptrend into next year. Penetrating intraday last year's low of 1545056 will confirm a serious correction into next year. However, we have rallied to exceed last year's high last month. We need to see a closing above 1998763 at year-end to see a continued rally is possible into next year. Exceeding this year's high next year and holding last year's low intraday will signal the bullish trend is still intact. A breach of last year's low of 1545056 intraday will negate that outcome.

Aiming on the longer term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2022, 2024 and 2026. There is a likelihood of a rally moving into 2022 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2024. Inspecting the volatility models suggest we should see a rise in price movement during January. We look to the turning points to ascertain the direction. Volatility targets reflect only volatility. However, our Panic Cycle targets for the period ahead to watch are during 2026. Keep in mind that a Panic Cycle differs from just volatility. This can be either an outside reversal or a sharp move in only one direction. Panic Cycles can be either up or down. Watch the oscillators and the reversals to determine the best indication of the potential direction.

Inspecting the immediate trend remains bullish since November made new highs and we have exceeded that high so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact that last month also closed higher. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 1998763. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, last month was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 33 weeks. The last weekly level low was 2037955, which formed during the week of April 17th. The last high on the weekly level was 2453404, which was created during the week of December 4th. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 27 months. The last monthly level low was 1537033, which formed during August 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 2432782, which was created during November.

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