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Re: pick post# 1416

Tuesday, 12/05/2017 3:41:26 PM

Tuesday, December 05, 2017 3:41:26 PM

Post# of 8177
Thank you for the nod, pick!

I'm not well enough versed in either of the two you mention. I know SA put out an article covering Magellan this morning. I scanned it, thought I might play with it but decided I've got enough picks on my plate...not referring to you. lol

Something I've had to accept over the years is that the more stocks I invest in, the less cash there is to place in the best possible directions. Many point to the importance of spreading the money around and allocating accordingly. I very strongly disagree---but only to the extent that that won't work for me. It can certainly be useful for others, though.

NGL is my #1 stock pick at this time. Even needing to lean on margin isn't enough to deter me in the least---if NGL drops enough to make it irresistible, I'll be a buyer. On the other end of the trade is the 12-13% yield. This is easily more than double my margin interest rate so I can't lose unless the whole shebang drops out of sight.

So here I am, about $20K shy of a third of a million $ in this one pick. Truth be told, my entire stock-only portfolio hardly more than a year ago was valued at $235K. ALDW and NGL have been immensely rewarding.

This week has had me adding to EPD and---you guessed it!---NGL.
Late last week had me launching positions in EPD and also ETP. and as I've mentioned, I continue to hold about half of my ALDW pending the big swallow and conversion into DK. And three weeks ago I launched both DK and DKL positions.

This morning, as I reviewed the above, I realized that as much as I might find Magellan attractive, yesterday's closing minute or two dropped NGL way down. This morning I was poised to pick up another 500 units of NGL should the price continue the downward slope of yesterday. It was not meant to be but my morning's disappointment made something extremely clear:

It took more than one baby to populate this world. And it's going to take a lot more ups & downs to shape NGL into the stock we hope it will eventually become. Portfolios undergo tempering as happens when a steel blade is exposed to the heat of a kiln. When one of our picks appears headed towards oblivion, we liquidate. When it faces challenges we find objectionable, we search for replacements. When faced with a stock rivaling another one's potential, we sell some of one to finance the other.

In the end, it's this tempering process that enables us to produce remarkably profitable portfolios.

I say all this because I truly believe you've identified some wonderful opportunities and are already building positions in them. There will be other stocks out there and my custom is to jot down a few notes detailing the ticker, the promoting source through editorializing such as SA, the date I first start to take a hard look at the stock and, of course, the price that day. A month or two later, if I'm running into that ticker here and there, I'll compare notes. If I find interpretable signs of continuing opportunity, I'll sell a few of a proven winner and nibble on the new one.

This is the tempering to which I refer as it forces me to take positions and continue on a path of tweakage that results in a stronger investment package.

You've already got a little bunch of picks that are doing splendidly. I wouldn't be thinking of liquidating anything in order to buy something else that has no history of profitability WITH YOU AT THE HELM. I like to stay with my winners.

A month or two back I took issue with two articles at SA. These articles embraced the lack of wisdom in holding NGL. A whole flurry of angry responses ensued. The only bit of bite-back from me was in the form of my stating that there are times when the numbers can't possibly keep pace with the story unfolding. Of course I was immediately corrected and I said nothing more as I figured I'd be the last one laughing. I'm laughing today, although not at them for I've always wished others might see the same opportunities I see.

We're all in this together. As an attorney I'm sure you've seen much and found much that has you scratching your head if handling divorces, real estate and corporate matters. So I'll suggest that you stick with the stock picks that brung you to the dance and get behind them as much as you can---prudently, that is. Diluting might save you from some heartburn but it's the winners that deserve to dance while the music is happening. Looking beyond your immediate circle of picks might just be an act of desperation when, in fact, I don't sense you're desperate.

Let me know if this helps, I sure hope it does!
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