S&P 500 Index Cash Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | November 25, 2017
Analysis for the Week of November 27, 2017
As of the close of Fri. Nov. 24, 2017: At this time, the market remains in a full blown bullish position. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 260423 and 260244. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 260044 and 260044. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come this month in S&P 500 Cash Index so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 258298 during October. We have now to exceed that level during November implying a continued advance was warranted. Support technically lies now at 252040 and a breach of that level will warn of a retest of key support down at 240570 becomes possible.
S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 260242 and is trading up about 16% for the year from last year's closing of 223883. So far, we have been trading up for the past 7 days since the low made on Wed. Nov. 15, 2017. We have advanced 0.nf% from the previous day implying the market is still very strong.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 258464
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 20th at 260421, which was up 13 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 21st. We have been generally trading up since that low, which has been a move of 4.66% percent in a stark panic type advance. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 20th has exceeded the previous high of 248038 made back during the week of August 28th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 241735 made the week of August 21st, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 13 weeks overall. Interestingly, the S&P 500 Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in June 2016.
Critical support still underlies this market at 240560 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.
Expansively, my far-reaching prospective recognizes that the current directional movement since the low made back in February 2016 has been a long-term Bullish trend in S&P 500 Cash Index. This trend remain in motion as long as we hold above 199166 on a monthly closing basis. It is incredibly important to identify the broader trend for that is the underlying tone. It is wise to take position counter-trend only with this understanding of what you are doing.
Consequently, this has been a 1 year rally in motion since 2016. Caution is advisable since this is also 8 years up from the low of given that was the major low 2009. We must pay attention to the closing for this year. If we close lower at year end, beneath 223883, then we can see a pause in the uptrend into next year. Penetrating intraday last year's low of 181010 will confirm a serious correction into next year. However, we have rallied to exceed last year's high last month. We need to see a closing above 227753 at year-end to see a continued rally is possible into next year. Exceeding this year's high next year and holding last year's low intraday will signal the bullish trend is still intact. A breach of last year's low of 181010 intraday will negate that outcome.
Aiming on the longer term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2019, 2023 and 2026. There is a likelihood of a rally moving into 2019 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2023. The most critical model, the Directional Change Model targets are during 2023 and during 2024. This model often picks the high or low, but can also elect a breakout to a new higher trading zone or a breakdown to a new lower trading level. Inspecting the volatility models suggest we should see a rise in price movement during January 2025. We look to the turning points to ascertain the direction. Volatility targets reflect only volatility.
Inspecting the immediate trend remains bullish since October made new highs and we have exceeded that high so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact that last month also closed higher. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 227753. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, last month was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 55 weeks. The last weekly level low was 208379, which formed during the week of October 31st. The last high on the weekly level was 260421, which was created during the week of November 20th. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 20 months. The last monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016. The last high on the monthly level was 258298, which was created during October.
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