SPY target 259.75 is done!!
At risk of being a permabear, the best method I have found for determination of targets, based on cycles, is this--once a cyclic wavelength is verified, use the fact that a centered MA is at the center of the cycle always, and halfway between trough and peak. The cycle is part of a harmonic set, which if also plotted as CMA's on same chart will all pass through the same (or almost the same) point. This point of convergence is HALF of the distance to the ultimate objective. My added trick is to "normalize" the shorthighs/lows by using a short term CMA +/- a typical value for the extreme of the DPO for the short term CMA. The DPO givecthe size of the fluctuation around the CMA, and when added to the CMA gives a realistic normalization. Hence, the distance from the short term CMA at the low to the convergence point plus the normal for the DPO gives the distance from the covergence point to the extreme.
Since there is only one true value, the holy grail is objectives which match for different cyclic wavelengths, within a reasonable margin for error. I have previously written re the objective for the 7yr cycle was approx 252. Other cycles projected to slightly higher. The shortest major cycle is now the equiv of the 13week, which has been stretched to 72 days, with 2x36, and 4x18 within. This cyclic set projects as above to 259.75 (9.0 from the convergence point). A tolerance range of 10% is normal, and is less than 100pts on SPY. So, if we are not there yet, we are very very close.
Play it with entry stops very close. Perhaps 10min or 30min pnf, or short term MA violation. Each trader has his own favorite decision tool for triggering a order, but now is the time to start using it.
Paul Tudor Jones became famous for the persistent use of a reliable tool, even though it generated 10 losses in a row. This mkt is the kind to generate such a string of losses. But sometimes that is the cost of doing business...
Consider this as the ringing of the bell. Play the shorts with tight stops, and one will become the trade you talk about for years.
Oddlot
Stay on the right side of the cycle!
