Back From a Great Vacation in Florida.
...Nov. and March are the two best times along the northern coastline. Low 70's and no humidity make the days perfect and with the kids in school the beaches are all but deserted.
Long days looking out over the Gulf gave me plenty of time to review and reflect on the nature of timing.
A market timer is like a pioneer...too early and you end up with arrows in your back, too late and all the good land has been taken.
So I've staggered the timing from early to late to reach an average of three months duration.
The early trigger will move to 50% cash, but not an inverse position until the longer pivot is also crossed.
Interesting that the market has sent buy signals for all the possible seasons, going into the market opening on Monday, the Sea Wolf's manifest reads:
SPRING ASSETS: EEM 8%, HYXU 8%, JNK 4%. = 20%
SUMMER ASSETS: LTPZ 8%, GCC 8% GLD 4% = 20%
FALL: VCLT 8%, LQD 4% AGG 4% = 16%
WINTER: TLT 8%, IEF 4% = 12%
US Dollar: Short/UDN = 4%
TOTAL 72% + .5% XIV and 2% CYB = 74.5% + 25.5% MM
Interesting that the inflation loving assets, spring and summer, are currently 40/16 vs. the deflation loving assets of fall and winter.
The growth loving assets, spring and fall, are very slightly ahead in weighting to the recessionary loving assets winter and summer.
All in all the market almost perfectly balanced between the four forces with a bias towards higher inflation.
Assets which currently have a $0 balance, but will be purchased at the pivot cross include: UUP, EUM, TBF, TBX, SJB, PALL, YCS, FXY and VXX The total universe of investable assets = 20.
The market will really get exciting when all the portfolio is concentrated in a single season, i.e. winter:
TLT, IEF, SJB, EEM.
...stay tuned.
