NY Silver COMEX Futures Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | November 18, 2017
Analysis for the Week of November 20, 2017
As of the close of Fri. Nov. 17, 2017: At this time, the market remains in a full blown bullish position. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 173852 and 173732. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 170202 and 170802. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come December in NY Silver COMEX Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a low at 163450 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 174950 to 163450. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 173730 and is trading up about 8.65% for the year from last year's closing of 159890. So far, we have been trading up for the past 5 days since the reaction low made on Fri. Nov. 10, 2017, but the key low was made 15 days ago on Fri. Oct. 27, 2017 at 166000.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 170950
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of October 2nd at 163450, which was down 4 weeks from the high made back during the week of September 4th. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of October 23rd, which has been a move of 4.57% percent.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during September. Critical support still underlies this market at 160500 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.
Methodically, my broader-term analysis looking forward recognizes that the current bullish progression in NY Silver COMEX Futures reflects a major low may be forming since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Silver COMEX Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 212250 and 137300. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 212250 to 137300. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 212250 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 185060.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 83000 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 185060, while support immediately lies down at 83000 on an intraday basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 498200 major high established back in 2011. To date, we have seen a 3 month reaction from the July low in NY Silver COMEX Futures. Caution is required for we must continue a rally beyond this month to extend the upward movement or we will resume a retest of support. A monthly closing below 163450 would technically warn of a resumption of the downtrend.
Directing our attention to the immediate momentum is Neutral on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of November 6th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 11/13 was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 18 weeks. The last weekly level low was 151450, which formed during the week of July 10th. The last high on the weekly level was 174950, which was created during the week of October 16th. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September. The last monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July. However, we still remain above key support 162250 on a closing basis.
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