MannKind Corp. (MNKD)

[TREND1]

One must do their DD

Chart Source - Spencer Osborne


The next chart is a conversion of MannKind revenue guidance to scripts. The chart contains actual sales vs. a low guidance and high guidance of MannKind.

As you can see in the chart, actual sales are trending below the lower end of MannKind guidance. This is something that savvy investors will consider. The delta between what actual sales are and the lower end of guidance is growing wider as each week passes. In essence, the only hope of MannKind being able to meet its guidance rests on Afrezza sales accelerating at a greater rate over the remaining 11 weeks of the year. While many want to give the company time to really work the new Afrezza label, it is the company itself that boxed itself into this second half guidance. With the Q3 call a few weeks away, this matter will either need to be addressed head on with a reasonable explanation or glossed over in hopes that people have a short memory. Unless sales begin to see immediate traction that is better than anything we have seen thus far, MannKind will likely need to find a way to explain itself. CEO Mike Castangna is very well spoken, and certainly capable of putting an explanation onto the table, but if the company misses its guidance, his believably will take a hit of some nature. In my opinion the current mission is getting as close as they can to the lower end of guidance more-so than actually hitting it.

It is my belief that the potential of the new label will be a Q1 measure instead of a Q4 measure.