Exactly right. What usually happens is they perform an interim data analysis (to feel our where they are at with data and enrollment and see if the data collection is occurring correctly) - they see the results thus far, and then they decide if they have powered the study correctly to get results with statistic significance. So sometimes companies extend the trial or increase enrollment if they have borderline positive results but are way below magnitude of effect size needed for statistical significance with that volume of patients, and sometimes they see what the expect to see (or even better), and decide that data will likely continue as such and that statistical significance can be obtained with less than full enroll. Sometimes companies just can't find enough patients or run into problems with enrollment processes and cut trials early. If that were the case, they've made no mention of such being a cause. And if it was a wash and the trial is being scrapped and enroll cut early, why would they schedule the KOL and go through all the trouble... it likely is isn't to bump the price to do an offering, they have had No trouble raising money on favorable terms and have only done modest capital raises compared to what their peers generally do. Doubtful that ligand or mgmt is gonna be quick to dilute themselves out of their huge ownership of this company.
I think Greens understands this statistical significance issue much better than others on here.
Showing up and saying that Viking has had 10 years to plan all this and is backed by Ligand and Succeeded in correctly powering and executing ALL studies to date, and now magically stopped the trial early "just because" and that will cause them to lose statistical significance... wow. Ok, anythings possible... but honestly? Why would you (claim) to be invested in a company that you suspect is unable to correctly enroll enough people to get statistically significant data?! The effect sizes were large in phase I's just like the effect sizes claimed by bodybuilders and avg joes who have been using this drug for Years. I have yet to encounter people alleging that this product is analogous to a weak steroid.
I get it, people are here to bash. Claiming to own a bunch of shares and then saying that the results will be ok but not statistically significant... implies that you are betting on something that you think will fail based on data analysis metrics. Makes no sense. Bash on though!
