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Re: karw post# 42354

Monday, 10/16/2017 1:39:16 AM

Monday, October 16, 2017 1:39:16 AM

Post# of 47030
Hi K, My cash is a bit over 40% and it is only that low because I bought BND and IJR. BND because of low volatility and IJR because it has outpaced the index it follows since inception and seems to have reasonable volatility.

Bizarre as it may seem I've made a hair over 52%/year in the last 6 weeks with it. That scares the s#$% out me as it seems too quick.

However, I have a small inherited IRA that is too small to use for an effective AIM position so I bought, sort of AIM style, MORL, partly because the price meant I could have a couple of hundred shares and partly because it pays a good dividend of around 17%/year. It went down from my original price so I added more and added more when it went down some more. This brought my price per share below what it was selling for about 6 weeks ago, so I sold it all for not all that much profit on the sale, but with the dividends I made about $1362 on an investment of $3500, or about 15%/year in 2.25 years. I sold it all and since I did not want hit the wash sale problem I bought SMHD and sold it 29 days later for a net of $360 plus $55 dividend, 10.04%, or about 233%/year! Yowser. The combo of the two added almost 22% to the total account. I don't expect that to happen ever again.

As to the market and where it is headed, one of the "experts" says to watch out for three things as potential clues for market top. The first on is that there is a period of small ups and downs on the daily chart for the S&P 500 before a jump up and then a combo up/down/up/down where the last down is below the start up point. The second is on the weekly chart where the 20 EMA crosses below the 50 SMA and the third is on the monthly chart where the monthly close is below the 10 SMA. Haven't seen all three yet and it may not even be real as we all know that "experts" are right only 47% of the time.

Looking at past grizzly bear markets it does seem true that there is a low volatility period before the final ramp up. I have noticed a couple of people commenting about low volatility recently.

I've not had time to gather the data about the other two signals.

Best,

Allen

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