NY Silver COMEX Futures Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | October 7, 2017
Analysis for the Week of October 9, 2017
As of the close of Fri. Oct. 6, 2017: The market is in a bullish posture near-term suggesting it is holding trading above the December 2016 high. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 168902 and 167902. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 163452 and 166102. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come this month in NY Silver COMEX Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 182900 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 182900 to 166400. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 167900 and is trading up about 5.00% for the year from last year's closing of 159890. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, while we have made a low at 163450 following the high established Wed. Oct. 4, 2017.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 165700
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 4th at 182900, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of July 10th. We have seen the market rally for the past week from the low of the week of October 2nd, which has been a move of 3.39% percent. Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of April for 3 months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 2 months.
Critical resistance still stands in this market at 177760 and a break above that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a continued advance becomes possible.
Broadly, my expanded recognizes that the current bullish progression in NY Silver COMEX Futures reflects a major low may be forming since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Silver COMEX Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 212250 and 137300. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 212250 to 137300. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 212250 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 185060.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 83000 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 185060, while support immediately lies down at 83000 on an intraday basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 498200 major high established back in 2011. To date, we have seen a two month reaction from the July low in NY Silver COMEX Futures. Caution is required for we must continue a rally beyond this month to extend the upward movement or we will resume a retest of support. A monthly closing below 166400 would technically warn of a resumption of the downtrend.
Bearing in mind the immediate momentum is Bearish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of September 25th's low. Some caution is warranted given the fact that last month closed lower. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 10/2 was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Addressing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 4 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 182900, which was created during the week of September 4th. The last weekly level low was 151450, which formed during the week of July 10th. However, we still remain above key support 165600 on a closing basis. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Eyeing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 5 months. The last high on the monthly level was 186550, which was created during April. The last monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July. However, we still remain above key support 159350 on a closing basis.
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