STOCK GOODIES PLAYS OF THE WEEK

[BoomPickens]

An Oldie but Goodie

Much of our understanding of chart patterns can be attributed to the work of Richard Schabacker. His 1932 classic, Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits, laid the foundations for modern pattern analysis. In Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (1948), Edwards and Magee credit Schabacker for most of the concepts put forth in the first part of their book. We would also like to acknowledge Messrs. Schabacker, Edwards and Magee, and John Murphy as the driving forces behind these articles and our understanding of chart patterns.

Pattern analysis may seem straightforward, but it is by no means an easy task. Schabacker states:

The science of chart reading, however, is not as easy as the mere memorizing of certain patterns and pictures and recalling what they generally forecast. Any general stock chart is a combination of countless different patterns and its accurate analysis depends upon constant study, long experience and knowledge of all the fine points, both technical and fundamental, and, above all, the ability to weigh opposing indications against each other, to appraise the entire picture in the light of its most minute and composite details as well as in the recognition of any certain and memorized formula.


Even though Schabacker refers to "the science of chart reading", technical analysis can at times be less science and more art. In addition, pattern recognition can be open to interpretation, which can be subject to personal biases. To defend against biases and confirm pattern interpretations, other aspects of technical analysis should be employed to verify or refute the conclusions drawn. While many patterns may seem similar in nature, no two patterns are exactly alike. False breakouts, bogus reads and exceptions to the rule are all part of the ongoing education.

Careful and constant study are required for successful chart analysis. On the AMZN chart above, the stock broke resistance from a head and shoulders reversal. While the trend is now bearish, analysis must continue to confirm the bearish trend.



Novellus Systems, Inc. (NVLS) chart patterns example chart from StockCharts.com
Novellus (NVLS)[Nvls]

Some analysts might have labeled the NVLS chart as a head and shoulders pattern with neckline support around 17.50. Whether or not this is robust remains open to debate. Even though the stock broke neckline support at 17.50, it repeatedly moved back above its support break. This refusal might have been taken as a sign of strength and justified a reassessment of the pattern.