What is Advaxis really worth if sold?
The ongoing argument, I've suggested, needs to be stated in terms of the overall potential of the company. It's makes some sense to gather data on cancers we treat with some guesstimates of likelihood of success and market penetration.
- incidence of cancers our constructs can treat (# of new cases/yr)
- % of those cancers that express the antigens we target (not all do)
- Throw in an uncertainty multiplier (for all cancers NOT far along in clinical development I used a 10% likelihood of success, for the ones further along I used 80%.)
- Throw in a potential market penetration - 50% across the board)
- Throw in what the charge/treatment might be - 50K across the board (personally I think this will be more.)
- Do some math. (Thank goodness for excel!)
These numbers reflect the US and EU only. I think patients in South America will want the treatments if successful, along with China, Russia, etc..... You get my point.
The speadsheet I created is actually much larger, but alas doesn't copy well into this site. I tried my best to make it readable. (If anyone knows how let me know and I'll repost.)
So for S***s and giggles this morning I did just that.
Tumor Type % of Tumors Expressing antigen Total Total w/Antigen Uncertainty Multiplyer Potential Pts Market Penetration Revenue
Bladder 12.4% 203000 25172 0.1 2517 1259 $62,930,000
Gallbladder 9.8% 31700 3107 0.1 311 155 $7,766,500
Uterine 3.0% 204700 6141 0.1 614 307 $15,352,500
Testicular 2.4% 51800 1243 0.1 124 62 $3,108,000
Esophageal 25.0% 51900 12975 0.1 1298 649 $32,437,500
Osteosarcoma 80.0% 3000 2400 0.8 1920 960 $48,000,000
Breast 20.0% 719100 143820 0.1 14382 7191 $359,550,000
Cervical 70.0% 71000 49700 0.8 39760 19880 $994,000,000
Head and Neck 25.0% 145000 36250 0.1 3625 1813 $90,625,000
NSCLC 15.0% 506000 75900 0.1 7590 3795 $189,750,000
Anal 95.0% 21500 20425 0.1 2043 1021 $51,062,500
Prostate Cancer 100.0% 578000 578000 0.1 57800 28900 $1,445,000,000
$3,299,582,000
This estimate does NOT take into account HOT, DUAL, or other patented constructs not in clinical development.
Again, let me repeat, this is a very conservative estimate that anticipates only a 10% likelihood of success and a 50% market penetration of most of these constructs.
As you can see, this very conservative estimate of the potential of Advaxis is over 3B. If you use a multiplier for the sale of 3x it can easily sell for over 9B.
I really, really hope this post helps quiet those who think we should sell for 1B or less. That number is totally, and now irrefutably, ridiculous.
Shameless request for a mod - please pin this.
