Tetraphase Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TTPH)

[rusty8350]

Just doing some weekend DD:

Read this and think about Eravacycline:

http://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/pfizer-grabs-az-antibiotics-1-5b-deal-pre-split-prep-or-just-another-sales-boosting-buy

Avycaz, a.k.a. Zavicefta, has hit the U.S. market running. After early scripts outpaced expectations, analysts suggested peak sales estimates of $300 million might be too low. The drug brought in $13.2 million for Allergan in the second quarter, for a first-half haul of $22.1 million. Teflaro delivered more than $68 million for the first half.

Plus, the early success of Avycaz "bodes well" for other gram-negative antibiotics that are making their way through the pipeline--"especially the ones that work on bugs for which all current options fail," Evercore ISI Group analyst Umer Raffat wrote in an investor note. That would include Zavicefta and the two pipeline meds that are part of this deal.

Avycaz is ceftazidime-avibactam, which was approved in 2015 as a safe and effective treatment for cIAI and cUTI caused by gram-negative bacteria. Being a drug combination that also requires the use of the antibiotic metronidazole, it would be safe to assume such a drug would not be the standard of care should Eravacycline get approval for these same indications.

The above line where it says it "bodes well" for other antibiotics, especially the ones that work well on bugs where all other treatment options fail, is also especially good for the outlook of Eravacycline, given it not only kills gram negatives that cannot be killed by other treatment options, it also has reactivity against gram positives as well, thus providing much more of a broad spectrum use for these patients.

Given TTPH has mentioned multiple pricing models suggesting 500-$800 million a year, perhaps there is also a possibility that, given success of other options, that these figures are low, and the need is even greater. Doing a billion or more per year in sales would make TTPH very, very, very valuable.

Might even justify that math I did the other day suggesting a potential of $375 a share..... if only, huh? Fingers crossed

http://www.techtimes.com/articles/21678/20141207/actavis-antibiotic-drug-gets-fda-nod-to-treat-ciai-and-cuti.htm