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NY Gold Nearest Futures Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 30, 2017

Analysis for the Week of October 2, 2017

As of the close of Fri. Sep. 29, 2017: encountering resistance so caution is wisely taken. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 129322, 128482 129012, . Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 127822. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.

We should see a trend change come this month in NY Gold Nearest Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 132900 during August. We need to exceed that level during September to suggest a continued advance is likely. Support technically lies now at 125390 and a breach of that level will warn of a retest of key support down at 121430 becomes possible.

NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 128480 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's closing of 115170. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 3 days, while we have made a low at 127820 following the high established Tue. Sep. 26, 2017.

The overall tone of this market is neutral at this time as it is balanced on all levels daily through yearly.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 4th at 136240, which was up 38 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 12th. We have seen the market rally for the past week from the low of the week of September 25th, which has been a move of 2.95% percent.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 137750 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during July 2016. Critical support still underlies this market at 111520 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.



Critically, my broader investigation prospective recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Gold Nearest Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Gold Nearest Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 137750 and 106100. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 137750 to 106100. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 137750 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 130790. Failure to make new lows this year warns that we could extend down into next year since their is a split between the high intraday took place in 2011 and the highest yearly closing which unfolded in 2012. There remains a long-term risk of an extended rally into 2017 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new highs unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the rally as far out as 2018. To accomplish an extended bull market of this nature requires penetrating above 130790 on an annual closing basis.

So far we have elected a Yearly buy signal from the low of 2015. Nevertheless, we must focuse upon overhead resistance standing at the 130790 level at this time.

Aiming on the immediate momentum is Neutral on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of September 18th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 9/25 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. On the subject of the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 3 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 136240, which was created during the week of September 4th. The last weekly level low was 120400, which formed during the week of July 10th. However, we still remain above key support 126940 on a closing basis. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 20 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 137750, which was created during July 2016. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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