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Re: nelson1234 post# 39242

Friday, 09/22/2017 12:23:23 PM

Friday, September 22, 2017 12:23:23 PM

Post# of 111929
Nelson (On ESCC)

Well my expectations and let's face it I could easily be wrong is roughly 20 million in sales the next two quarters (They did about 19.8 million last year, so not exactly is there growth in my model). What we know is gm are generally better in the 2nd half when there is higher sales. so I expect GM to be in the upper 30's, I could see a scenario where it hit 40, but I rather use 38% and call it a day, keep in mind gm were lower last year in the first half as well, and then picked up in the 2nd half when sales picked up, gm are actually better this year versus last up until this point (So I don't see the same gm margin pressure you do, I see this more as the common variation of margins we should expect with escc maybe your right and I'm wrong. time will tell. I'm using a combined 5.1 million of operating expenses for the next two quarter, and we get roughly .22 for the two quarters combined. Of course these are just estimates of what I think they can earn and I admit I can be off way off, as I often am. But I always try to run a forecast of what I think the company can earn over the next 4 quarters, and then base my buys on that to a degree. Time will tell if I'm right, for all I know everything I said about ESCC could be wrong, but that is why I diversify. You never know with earnings, time will tell. Either way even if I'm wrong, I do think there is some slack where I could be proven to be optimistic and still make money and that is the situations I like to be in because it gives you some slack to work with, now hopefully I have enough slack or better yet don't need it at all, that is the question of course always. all is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.

---All above is just my humble opinion.
And I could always be wrong.
And as always do your own DD.---
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