A word of caution for traders:
ALDW goes ex-distribution around the middle of November. This means management will come out with guidance relative to earnings and the next scheduled quarterly distribution approximately three weeks prior to going ex-D. As we last went Ex. on August 15th, we can expect November 15 to be the next Ex. date. Inasmuch as we ordinarily receive this guidance (news) three weeks before things are officially set in stone, that tells us we are now about four weeks (a month) away from things getting serious around here.
Please be aware that these are not concrete numbers by any means. But they are probably quite close and that's the best I've got.
Now, then, what does this all mean, anyway? Good question, glad you asked. lol
Firstly, it means we must look very carefully at volumetrics when planning last-ditch buys. Right now, with almost two hours of this Friday trading session gone, only 5,276 units of ALDW have traded. The stock is up 5 cents on the day. This amount of trading is extremely light indicating that the price must rise from here. It may become a volleyball situation for a week or so but I see the valuation rising considerably as we move into the last month prior to Ex.
Low volume can mean two things: Nobody wants the stock or people aren't willing to let go of their holdings. I'm of the belief that folks are unwilling to sell into the incredibly likely scenario that has units of ALDW rising considerably. Why? Because we have good reasons to expect a generous payout come out next payday. I'm seeing 60 to 70 cents, myself, but I may be overly optimistic so please arrive at your own conclusions.
Buy-side pressures will begin to mount as we go forward from here. The closer we get to the day of guidance, the greater the likelihood that units will be fetching a higher price. Adding everything up, I'm very pleased that ALDW remains my largest position.
Happy hunting, everybody!
