Welcome to the forum.
I'll share a few thoughts, which are my opinions only. Generally, I tend to be a lot harder on the company and its management than OMOLIVES, so take what I say with a grain of salt.
1. If you're pleased with first half production, you'll probably be giddy about second half production. Company has guided to 4.5mT of HCC for the year, so, to my eyes, first half production looks like a miss. Excuses for the miss (company is very experienced at providing excuses) included CEO overconfidence and outsized impact of Lunar New Year holidays. A source in Mongolia told me that he was 99% sure that MMC was running at full capacity (625kT of HCC per month) back in the summer.
2. The lack of operating leverage in the first half results was a surprise to me. Part of this is due to the company paying its mining contractor more and paying out higher royalties and duties to the government when coal prices rise. Another part of this is due to higher than expected transportation costs due to the major bottlenecks at the China-Mongolia border. I don't think that these are one-time only issues.
3. I don't know that a frontier market mining company deserves a 7.5x multiple on EBITDA, particularly when it has no track record of translating EBITDA into free cash flow for the benefit of shareholders. First half cash flows may have been depressed by the loan restructuring-related payments, but still would have been pretty unimpressive in relation to revenues. Couple this with the odd dynamics of a company experiencing negative operating leverage in a favorable commodity pricing backdrop and I think you have the recipe for a 3-5x multiple on EBITDA.
4. Using your numbers and applying a 5x EBITDA multiple gets us to a sub 0.10 HKD stock price. I suspect that market might be discounting 2018 numbers at this point in time.
