Seelos Therapeutics Inc (SEEL)

[OldtimeramI]

Why would they have to do a capital raise if Vitaros gets approved and Allegran opts in for 25 million?

The above scenario calls for everything to go Apricus' way. Not only an FDA approval without any hiccups but also a Allergan opt in.

If things indeed happen in this fashion then a capital raise might be off the books as not only will they receive the opt-in money from Allergan. They will also receive $7.6 million USD from the 4.9 M warrants that would surely be exercised at $1.55 and $1.75.

You are right, this scenario might not have Apricus in a hurry to raise cash. Then again, the share price if the above scenario were to happen would be way more than the current one and management might be temped to take advantage of the situation. As they surely need funds to push forward any of the other drugs they have in the back burner.

They had $7.8 M cash at June 30, 2017. If they indeed only burn $500k per month ( which by the way has not been true up until now ) they would have about $3.3 m - $2.8 m left by the time the FDA decision comes up.

What happens if they Allergan does not opt in? Doesn't Apricus owe Allergan some money in the form of a regulatory milestone? $1 Million or $1.5 Million seems to ring a bell. Do you think that this money is included in their $500k cash burn per month estimates? How confident are you that Apricus can find another company to sublicense Vitaros and would be willing to pay a 30% royalty on sales ( 20% for Allergan and the remaining 10% for Apricus ) in a timely fashion?


What about the Majorelle lawsuit? You think that was included in the cash burn projections?

What if they get a CRL at the end of March / April? I guarantee you that a capital raise is 100% in the cards if this were to happen.

In my opinion, there are still several curves up ahead. The road is never straight when dealing with Apricus management.

Good Luck