NY Crude Oil Futures Analysis By Marty Armstrong | August 27, 2017
Analysis for the Week of August 28, 2017
As of the close of Fri. Aug. 25, 2017, the NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 5263. It has experienced an inside trading session that closed higher. The market is in a neutral position for right now. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 4793 and 4789. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 4741 and 4764. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come October in NY Crude Oil Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 5041 during July. We need to exceed that level during August to suggest a continued advance is likely. Support technically lies now at 4365 and a breach of that level will warn of a retest of key support down at 4057 becomes possible.
NY Crude Oil Futures closing today of 4787 so far is trading down about 10% for the year from last year's closing of 5372. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the key low made on Thu. Aug. 24, 2017.
The overall tone of this market is neutral at this time as it is balanced on all levels daily through yearly.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 31st at 5043, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of August 14th, which has been a move of 4.98% percent. Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of January for 5 months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 1 month.
Critical support still underlies this market at 4357 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.
Logically, my long-term analysis looking forward recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Crude Oil Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Crude Oil Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 5451 and 2605. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2016 which was a 8 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2016, this market has bounced so far this year, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 5451 to 2605. There remains a long-term risk of a decline extending into 2018 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new lows unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the decline as far out as 2021.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 3210 on an annual closing basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 14727 major high established back in 2008.
Inspecting the immediate momentum is Bullish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of August 14th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 5451. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, the last week of 8/21 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Aiming on the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 3 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 5043, which was created during the week of July 31st. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th. However, we still remain above key support 4365 on a closing basis. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Aiming on the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 6 months. The last high on the monthly level was 5524, which was created during January. The last monthly level low was 4205, which formed during June. However, we still remain above key support 4663 on a closing basis.
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