NY Silver COMEX Futures Analysis By Marty Armstrong | August 27, 2017
Analysis for the Week of August 28, 2017
As of the close of Fri. Aug. 25, 2017, the NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 3451. It has made an outside reversal to the upside closing higher. The market is in a neutral position for right now. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 171802 and 170492. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 167152 and 169552. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come September in NY Silver COMEX Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a low at 143400 and we need to penetrate that level on a monthly closing basis to suggest perhaps a further decline.
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 170490 and is trading up about 6.62% for the year from last year's closing of 159890. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 5 days, while we have made a low at 167150 following the high established Fri. Aug. 18, 2017.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 168700
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of July 10th at 151450, which was down 12 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 17th. We have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week from the high of the week of August 14th, which has been a move of 3.49% percent in a stark panic type decline. Looking at this from a broader perspective, this current rally into the week of August 14th reaching 173200 has failed to exceed the previous high of 177450 made back during the week of June 5th. We have seen only a minor reaction rally from the last low for the past week. A break of the last low will warn of a continued decline ahead. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. From a wider viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 11 weeks overall.
Critical support still underlies this market at 161400 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.
Critically, my broader investigation forecast recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Silver COMEX Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Silver COMEX Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 212250 and 137300. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 212250 to 137300. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 212250 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 185060. There remains a long-term risk of an extended rally into 2017 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new highs unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the rally as far out as 2018. To accomplish an extended bull market of this nature requires penetrating above 185060 on an annual closing basis.
So far we have elected a Yearly buy signal from the low of 2015. Nevertheless, we must focuse upon overhead resistance standing at the 185060 level at this time.
Aiming on the immediate trend remains bullish since July made new highs and we have exceeded that high so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact that last month also closed higher. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 8/21 was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently.
While the market made a new low last month, our energy models turned up. This warns we may be preparing to rally. For now, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 6 weeks. The last weekly level low was 151450, which formed during the week of July 10th. The last high on the weekly level was 173200, which was created during the week of August 14th. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Honing in on the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 3 months. The last high on the monthly level was 186550, which was created during April. The last monthly level low was 136200, which formed during December 2015. However, we still remain above key support 159350 on a closing basis.
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