Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK)

[Crusen]

The trend is your friend? It's never a good idea to ignore fundamentals. The truth is, chk, although it cleaned up its books significantly as the pump of a few months ago made clear, still has a high debt load with a punishing repayment schedule. The structure of Western markets and the ability for companies to hedge future production, as chk did, allows American producers to tap large supplies of American shale in the Texas Permian Basin and elsewhere in shale. Like at the end of the recently completed DAPL....This is the reason that there is a very real price lid on the cost of WTI looking forward. The other part of the equation is, renewables are a reality. Even SA is getting in on the action. China in a big way, India...Europe. This will only accelerate exponentially into the future, especially with the release next year??? of the next generation double condensing solar which will be a literal paradigm changer. Batteries, and solar are on an unstoppable course of improvement, etc. In other words, the future looks dark for carbon. With Chesapeake, an "L" shaped recovery vs. the assumed choice of "U" vs. "V" recovery will mean hard, hard times, sooner rather than later.