NY Gold Nearest Futures Analysis By Marty Armstrong | August 19, 2017
Analysis for the Week of August 21, 2017
NY Gold Nearest Futures AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Aug. 18, 2017: Identifying when the next turning point should arrive, that seems to be coming September in NY Gold Nearest Futures at least on a closing basis if not intraday so stay focused. The key week ahead for a turning point is 8/21. Last month produced a low at 120400 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 127080 to 120400. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. Here we have a long-term bullish trend in play since the historical low took place back in 1976 followed by the historical high in 2011, which constituted a 35 year rally. Since then, there was a reactionary low in 2015 from which we have seen a 4 year decline. Subsequently, we have seen a 2 year rally to retest resistance. As of the close of Fri. Aug. 18, 2017, the market is immediately in a bullish posture near-term with a distinct bullish undertone on the broader perspective. However, we made another new high on this run as of Fri. 18th, which has been a 3 day rally with a technical pivot point at 128966. We are trading above the December 2016 high, however the historical high remains at 192370 established back on Tue. Sep. 6, 2011. NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 128830 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's closing of 115170. So far, we have been trading up for the past 3 days since the reaction low made on Tue. Aug. 15, 2017, but the key low was made 29 days ago on Mon. Jul. 10, 2017 at 120400.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 14th at 130350, which was up 35 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 12th. We have been generally trading up since that low, which has been a sharp move of 8.26% percent in a stark panic type advance. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of August 14th has exceeded the previous high of 129880 made back during the week of June 5th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 112430 made the week of December 12th, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 14 weeks overall. Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of July 2016 for 5 months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 7 months.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 137750 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during July 2016. Critical support still underlies this market at 111520 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Subsequently, the market made a low in December 2016 at 112430 electing two buy signals from that event. Critical resistance now stands on a monthly closing basis at 135770 and a break above that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a continued advance ahead becomes possible.
Broadly, my broader forecast recognizes that the current bullish progression in NY Gold Nearest Futures reflects a major low may be forming since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Gold Nearest Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 137750 and 106100. Only a closing above last year's high will signal a breakout long-term and a penetration of last year's low will signal the final move into a low lies ahead.
Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 137750 to 106100. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 137750 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 130790. Failure to make new lows this year warns that we could extend down into next year since their is a split between the high intraday took place in 2011 and the highest yearly closing which unfolded in 2012.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 68090 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 130790, while support immediately lies down at 68090 on an intraday basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 192370 major high established back in 2011.
On the subject of the immediate trend remains bullish since July made new highs and we have exceeded that high so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact that last month also closed higher. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 8/14 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend.
While the market made a new low last month, our energy models turned up. This warns we may be preparing to rally. Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 5 weeks. The last weekly level low was 120400, which formed during the week of July 10th. The last high on the weekly level was 130350, which was created during the week of August 14th. Looking at a broader time horizon, this market is in an uptrend position on all our monthly indicators for the near term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 19 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 129880, which was created during June. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
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