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Re: DiscoverGold post# 587269

Sunday, 07/23/2017 9:45:17 AM

Sunday, July 23, 2017 9:45:17 AM

Post# of 648882
Weekend Analysis by Amateur Investors
By Amateur Investors | July 22, 2017

During the past year Margin Debt in the NYSE has made another all time high above 500 Billion Dollars. Thus investors continue to borrow money to invest in the market. Since the 1990's each surge higher in Margin Debt (points A to B) has been associated with significant rises in the market (points C to D). This has then been followed by a substantial drop in Margin Debt (points B to A) which corresponded to significant correction in the market (points D to C).



Meanwhile looking at a shorter time frame from the 1990's notice there has been an expanding upward channel in Margin Debt. Furthermore Margin Debt has reached the upper part of the channel. The last time Margin Debt reached the upper part of the channel in 2015 (point C) this was followed by a 13% correction in the S&P 500. Thus this is something to be aware of as we move into the Fall.



If we do see a pullback in Margin Debt, similar to 2015, then a 13% correction in the S&P 500 would yield a target near the longer term upward trend line (black line). In addition this is where the S&P 500 encountered prior resistance in 2015 at the 161.8% Extension Level (purple line).



http://www.amateur-investors.com/AII_Weekend_AnalysisJuly_22_17.htm

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