Conatus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (CNAT)

[micham2012]

I agree with everything you say. But is it reasonable to expect the Novartis payment to lift the price to $7, or $9, or $12 or $41? Obviously, if Novartis had backed out, no chart would have prevented the stock from tanking. But how can you tell with a stock like this when it is overvalued? I do think that charts can be helpful in determining when these news driven stocks are overbought or oversold. The charts are a way of "measuring" a possible endpoint for news-generated momentum, albeit a very approximate one. I don't think that fundamentals are much help in deciding what this stock is currently "worth."

I am very long this stock. I was surprised by the impact that the public offering had on the share price. I wish I had sold at $9 and bought back in at $5. But I have just held through the roller coaster ride.

Do you think that there is any chance that Novartis will just buy the company?