~~ NY Silver COMEX Futures Analysis ~~ By Marty Armstrong | June 4, 2017
Analysis for the Week of June 5, 2017
We should see a trend change come this month in NY Silver COMEX Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a low at 160600 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 174650 to 160600. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. As of the close of Fri. Jun. 2, 2017, the market is immediately in a bullish posture near-term suggesting it is quite strong trading above the December 2016 high. NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 175250 and is trading up about 9.60% for the year from last year's closing of 159890. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the key low made on Thu. Jun. 1, 2017.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 17th at 186550, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 19th. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of May 8th, which has been a move of 9.22% percent. Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of July 2016 for 5 months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 5 months.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 212250 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during July 2016. Critical support still underlies this market at 154340 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Subsequently, the market made a low in December 2016 at 156750 electing two buy signals from that event. Critical resistance now stands on a monthly closing basis at 202360 and a break above that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a continued advance ahead becomes possible.
Rationally, my comprehensive forecast recognizes that the current bullish progression in NY Silver COMEX Futures reflects a major low may be forming since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Silver COMEX Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 212250 and 137300. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 212250 to 137300. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 212250 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 185060.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 83000 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 185060, while support immediately lies down at 83000 on an intraday basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 498200 major high established back in 2011.
On the subject of the immediate trend remains bullish since May made new highs and we have exceeded that high so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact that last month also closed higher. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 5/29 was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. For now, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 3 weeks. The last weekly level low was 160600, which formed during the week of May 8th. The last high on the weekly level was 186550, which was created during the week of April 17th. However, we still remain below key resistance 183150 on a closing basis. Looking at a broader time horizon, this market is in an uptrend position on all our monthly indicators for the near term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 17 months. The last monthly level low was 136200, which formed during December 2015, 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 186550, which was created during April. However, we still remain below key resistance 176350 on a closing basis.
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