A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[SFSecurity]

Hi Toofuzzy, I assume you were referring to PRNHX as that is the post you linked to, however, since I still had the data for SPY handy I did that instead. If I have the energy I'll do PRNHX later.

SPY with a 0% sell safe and a 10% buy safe I got got $40,891 and 5.981%/year return with 10% minimum trade size from February 1st, 1993 to May 1st 2017 based on monthly figures. With 10% buy and sell safe and 10% minimum trade size I got $33,596, 5.124%/year. With 5% minimum trade size and 10% buy and sell safe I got $38,854 and 5.756%/year.

Going back to 0% sell safe and 10% buy safe and 5% minimum trade size I got $39,767, 5.858%/year. With 0% sell safe, 10% buy safe and 100% minimum trade size (180) I got $54,389, and 7.234%/year. With 10% buy and sell safe and 100% minimum trade size I got exactly the same results. For goofs and grins I tried 0% buy and sell safe and 100% minimum trade size and got exactly the same results so then I tried a minimum trade size of 5% and got $47,303, 6.618%/year and with 10% minimum trade size got only $42,037, 6.1%/year.

Then I tried doing as you suggested of buying in 2002, selling in 2006, then re-buying in 2009 to present.

Starting September 2002 and running until January 2007, the results were best with 100% minimum trade size and it did not matter if the buy and sell safe were 0% or 10% each or 10% one and 0% the other, they all got $16,792, 12.707% 10% trade size got $15,372, 10.431%/year with 10% buy safe and 0% sell safe. at 5% minimum trade size it was %15,282, and 10.291%/year.

Then starting at the Orcroft point, April 2009 until present, best again was 100% minimum trade size (91) with a return of $25,713, and
12.393%/year. These figures assume starting with the same $10,000 as the previous run of SPY. If one started with the results from the previous run, $16,792, the results would be a total of $43,210 and a slightly better 12.404% for the 8.33 years of the second part.

Assuming you let the results of the first run sit on the self and got no return sticking with SPY the whole time would be best as you would have gotten $54,389 total, or $11179 more. To make this much sitting on your hands you would have to make ~31.786%/year during the 22 month you were out of SPY!

AIM beats the pants off Buy and Hope over the total period of September 2002 to present with a return for B&H of only $28,885 versus the $54,389 for AIM. Even giving B&H the chance to get in in 1993 it only gets $53,703 for 24.5 years, 7.102%/year.

So it is clear that playing with your settings and when you get in and out makes one hell of a difference.

Best,

Allen