Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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::: NY Gold Nearest Futures Analysis :::
By Martin Armstrong | May 13, 2017

Analysis for the Week of May 15, 2017

We should see a trend change come July in NY Gold Nearest Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 129740 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 129740 to 124540. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. As of the close of Fri. May. 12, 2017, the market is immediately in a neutral position for right now. NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 122770 and is trading up about 6.59% for the year from last year's closing of 115170. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the low made on Thu. May. 11, 2017.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 17th at 129740, which was up 18 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 12th. This was a key week for at least a temporary high. We have seen the market rally for the past week from the low of the week of May 8th, which has been a move of 1.82% percent.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 137750 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during July 2016. Critical support still underlies this market at 111520 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.



Methodically, my broader-term outlook recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Gold Nearest Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Gold Nearest Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 137750 and 106100. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 137750 to 106100. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 137750 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 130790. Failure to make new lows this year warns that we could extend down into next year since their is a split between the high intraday took place in 2011 and the highest yearly closing which unfolded in 2012. There remains a long-term risk of an extended rally into 2017 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new highs unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the rally as far out as 2018.

So far we have elected a Yearly buy signal from the low of 2015. Nevertheless, we must focuse upon overhead resistance standing at the 130790 level at this time.

Eyeballing the immediate trend remains bearish since April made new lows and we have penetrated that low so far this month. This is warning to pay very close attention since last month had closed higher but the upward momentum has been lost. With this pattern in motion, we should be on point here for there is the risk of a change in near-term trend if the reversals give way. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 5/8 was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Eyeballing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 3 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 129740, which was created during the week of April 17th. The last weekly level low was 112430, which formed during the week of December 12th, 2016. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 124150 above the market. For now on a broader perspective, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 16 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015, 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 137750, which was created during July 2016. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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