Followers | 679 |
Posts | 140682 |
Boards Moderated | 37 |
Alias Born | 03/10/2004 |
Friday, April 21, 2017 9:10:41 AM
By Mark Hulbert | April 21, 2017
Strong sentiment for yellow metal is a contrary sign
Gold is suffering from too many believers. A decent rally for the yellow metal may therefore need to wait for at least many of gold’s enthusiasts to throw in the towel.
The current sentiment picture stands in stark contrast to what prevailed in mid-March, the last time I devoted a column to gold market sentiment. That’s when there was a lot of bearishness in the gold-timing community and a contrarian-based buy signal was imminent.
Over the six weeks since then, as gold GCM7, +0.01% rallied nearly $100 per ounce, most of that period’s bears jumped on the bullish bandwagon. In the process they transformed a favorable sentiment picture into an unfavorable one.
Consider the average recommended gold market exposure level among a subset of short-term gold market timers that I monitor (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). This average earlier this week rose to as high as 57.7%, the highest level in nearly 12 months.
As recently as mid-March, in contrast, the HGNSI stood at minus 27.7%. So in six weeks’ time the average gold timer increased his recommended exposure level by more than 85 percentage points. No wonder gold’s rally ran out of steam earlier this week.
Some wonder if a higher-than-normal level of exuberance is justified right now because of heightened geopolitical worries out of North Korea and Syria. But I don’t think so. As I argued earlier this week, gold actually has a mediocre track record as a hedge against geopolitical risk.
None of this discussion means that it’s impossible for gold to rise from current levels. But if it were to try to do so, any rally would not be built on a strong sentiment foundation and is therefore likely to be short-lived.
Over the last several years, gold rallies lasting more than a week or two have started when the HGNSI has been as low as minus 30%, if not lower. We’re nowhere close to that level today.
To be sure, contrarian analysis, to the extent it works, applies only to the short term. It tells us nothing about where the gold market may be trading, say, a year from now. But if past sentiment trends are any guide, gold over the near term is likely to pull back before even trying to mount a sustainable rally.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/there-are-too-many-bulls-to-make-any-money-on-gold-2017-04-21
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
• DiscoverGold
Recent GOLD News
- Barrick On Track to Achieve 2024 Targets • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/16/2024 11:00:00 AM
- Notice of Release of Barrick’s First Quarter 2024 Results • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/09/2024 11:00:00 AM
- Strategy-Driven Barrick Builds on Value Foundation • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/28/2024 09:20:38 PM
- Barrick Hunts New Gold and Copper Prospects in DRC From Kibali Base • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/20/2024 02:00:00 PM
- Barrick Opens Academy at Closed Buzwagi Mine • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/18/2024 08:00:00 AM
- Barrick to Grow Production and Value on Global Asset Foundation • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/15/2024 11:53:01 AM
- Loulo-Gounkoto Delivers Another Value-Creating Performance • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/10/2024 10:00:00 AM
- Passing of the Right Honorable Brian Mulroney • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/02/2024 01:17:35 AM
- Kibali and DRC Partner to Promote Local Content • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/01/2024 02:22:43 PM
- Tanzanian Parliamentary Committee Lauds Barrick’s Work at North Mara • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/23/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Form 6-K - Report of foreign issuer [Rules 13a-16 and 15d-16] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 10:28:08 PM
- Form 6-K - Report of foreign issuer [Rules 13a-16 and 15d-16] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 08:05:25 PM
- Clear Strategies and Strong Partnerships Set Barrick Up to Outperform, Says Bristow • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/14/2024 11:00:00 AM
- Barrick Announces New Share Buyback Program • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/14/2024 10:59:00 AM
- Barrick Declares Q4 Dividend • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/14/2024 10:58:00 AM
- NGM Strongly Positioned for Growth • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/10/2024 01:00:16 AM
- Form SC 13G - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/08/2024 03:03:08 PM
- Form 6-K - Report of foreign issuer [Rules 13a-16 and 15d-16] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/08/2024 12:46:55 PM
- Geologically Driven Asset Management Delivers Barrick’s Third Successive Year of Reserve Growth at Sustained Quality, While Unlocking Embedded Growth Portfolio • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/08/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Form SC 13G/A - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/01/2024 06:04:56 PM
- Africa’s Largest Gold Mine Now Also One of Its Greenest • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 01/29/2024 04:00:00 PM
- Barrick Continues to be a Major Value Creator for Mali • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 01/27/2024 09:00:00 AM
- Barrick’s Lumwana Super Pit Project On Track for First Production in 2028 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 01/23/2024 03:35:00 PM
- Barrick’s Tanzanian Mines on Tier One Track With Potential for Extending Lives, Growing Production • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 01/21/2024 12:00:00 PM
- New Airport Terminal at Kahama Airstrip to Leave Lasting Legacy at Barrick’s Buzwagi Gold Mine • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 01/21/2024 08:00:00 AM
Coinllectibles' Subsidiary, Grand Town Development Limited, Acquires Rare Song Dynasty Ceramics Worth Over USD28million • COSG • Apr 18, 2024 8:03 AM
ILUS Provides Form 10-K Filing Update • ILUS • Apr 17, 2024 9:54 AM
Glucotrack Announces Expansion of Its Continuous Glucose Monitoring Technology to Epidural Glucose Monitoring • GCTK • Apr 17, 2024 8:00 AM
Maybacks Global Entertainment To Fire Up 24 New Stations in Louisiana • AHRO • Apr 16, 2024 1:30 PM
Cannabix Technologies Begins Certification of Contactless Alcohol Breathalyzer, Re-Brands product series to Breath Logix • BLOZF • Apr 16, 2024 8:52 AM
Kona Gold Beverages, Inc. Acquires Surge Distribution LLC from Loud Beverage Group, Inc. (LBEV) • KGKG • Apr 16, 2024 8:30 AM