Hal, I believe QMC stated in a recent PR or maybe the shareholder letter that they've hired attorneys to review their current patents for issues with using them without infringing on others. They stated that their current patents are clear of all obstructions for them to move to mass production and sales. This is all with respect to indium based quantum dots produced in their continuous flow reactors.
I've read many patents myself. Although I'm not a lawyer, I believe they are clear to supply qdots for film display application. These patents have been granted by the US patent office.
With respect to solar, I've not done much focus on that IP because I've always seen that as a longer term use of quantum dots. Efficiency hasn't risen to commercial viable levels yet, but they are progressing toward that.
I think QMC has closer to 90% chance of succeeding in displays this year.
Given the way that business operates and the timelines laid out by QMC and BOE, I believe QMC will have revenue by 4Q, maybe sooner. This is based in the following timeline:
1) Completion of film product (complete! Although there is always room to optimize as Samsung has done year after year)
2) Integration of film into display. I think we may see this, as Ken Werner stated, at SID (Display Week) in May.
3) I think the display manufacturer will show a product at SID and announce plans for production in 4Q this year or early 2018.
4) Contract signed for QMC to supply qdots. This would likely occur at time the display manufacturer announces a tv product. Let's call this May for a frame of reference for my following timeline.
5) QMC scales up to full production using San Marcos production until QMA is up and running. This includes QMC going into full production and building up inventory, probably a 2-3 month period. Let's say we are now in August.
6) Once inventories are sufficient, let's say 500 kg (3 months production and enough for 500,000 or more 60" TVs), QMC ships this to the film manufacturer. It's August maybe September and QMC just shipped first order to film manufacturer.
7) Film manufacture commences production of film (2-3 months to build up inventory). Film manufacture ships to display manufacture in November or December.
8) Display manufacture starts manufacturing TVs and are sold in early 2018 (2-3 months to build up inventory).
9) QMC invoices film manufacturer for 500 kg in August or September. Let's say they have a standard 30 day payment due. Now we are in September or October when QMC realizes their first revenue. This is late 3Q. So if anything is longer in my estimates above, you can see how it could push into 4Q.
Hope this helps! It takes time to do business with a chain of suppliers.
