| Followers | 679 |
| Posts | 140715 |
| Boards Moderated | 36 |
| Alias Born | 03/10/2004 |
Saturday, March 18, 2017 10:02:58 AM
• • • Peek Into Future Through Futures • • •
* March 18, 2017
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 14, 2017.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net long 161.9k, up 24.2k.
U.S.-based equity funds continue to attract money. In the week ended Wednesday, another $890 million came in. In the last seven weeks, they took in $47.1 billion, $16.6 billion in the last three (courtesy of Lipper). Notably, the S&P 500 (cash) has been under slight pressure since it gapped up to a new all-time high 2400.98 on March 1 – meaning inflows this month have not made much money.
This also applies to SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF. Also in the week ended Wednesday, $3 billion came in (courtesy of ETF.com). This was the third straight week of inflows, during which $9.6 billion moved in.
There is a real tug of war going on between bulls and bears. In the last several sessions, the latter succeeded in pushing the cash under both 10- and 20-day moving averages, only to be recaptured by the former. The averages are now going sideways, and probably on the verge of a cross-under, so the bears may have a slight edge here. It remains to be seen how far they can take it. Earnings season gets underway in three weeks. As of Thursday last week, 1Q17 operating earnings estimates were $29.37, down $0.76 so far this quarter. The bar keeps getting lowered.
Nasdaq 100 index (mini): Currently net long 74.1k, down 673.
Of the top five Nasdaq 100 weights, Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOGL) enjoyed fresh new highs this week, while Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) were not that far away from their respective recent record highs.
Bulls continue to defend shorter-term daily moving averages, including Wednesday (FOMC decision day) when it rallied 0.6 percent. Interestingly, in that session, QQQ, the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 ETF, lost $446 million. In the week ended Wednesday, $775 million was withdrawn (courtesy of ETF.com).
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 24.7k, up 12.3k.
Support at 1347 came close to being tested when the cash dropped to 1353.47 on Tuesday. This was followed by a 1.5-percent jump on Wednesday, past its 50-day moving average. Bulls’ real test lies around 1392, which is where the index closed Friday. If this resistance gives way, it might even cause some squeeze.
End-February short interest on IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, stood at 117.6 million – a three-month high and up from 93.7 million from mid-January.
It might all come down to flows.
In the week ended Wednesday, $328 million moved into IWM (courtesy of ETF.com). This followed outflows of $1.1 billion in the prior three.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 47.7k, down 3.3k.
The right shoulder of a potential head-and-shoulders continued to develop on the cash. The post-FOMC, one-percent drop on Wednesday in particular points to bulls throwing up their hands in resignation – at least near term.
The level to watch is 99 and change, which is where the neckline lies. Right underneath – just south of 99 – lies trend-line support from early May last year. It is a must-save for the bulls.
VIX: Currently net short 100.6k, up 946.
Yet another week in which the cash was unable to sustain above the 50-day moving average. In fact, intraday both Wednesday and Friday it was pushed under 11 before it managed to close above.
In keeping with this, VXX, the iPath S&P 500 VIX short-term futures ETN, made yet another low. It almost feels like longs are capitulating. Month-to-date (as of Wednesday), it lost $162 million. This compares with inflows of $326 million post-November 8 presidential election last year.
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-87/
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
* March 18, 2017
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 14, 2017.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net long 161.9k, up 24.2k.
U.S.-based equity funds continue to attract money. In the week ended Wednesday, another $890 million came in. In the last seven weeks, they took in $47.1 billion, $16.6 billion in the last three (courtesy of Lipper). Notably, the S&P 500 (cash) has been under slight pressure since it gapped up to a new all-time high 2400.98 on March 1 – meaning inflows this month have not made much money.
This also applies to SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF. Also in the week ended Wednesday, $3 billion came in (courtesy of ETF.com). This was the third straight week of inflows, during which $9.6 billion moved in.
There is a real tug of war going on between bulls and bears. In the last several sessions, the latter succeeded in pushing the cash under both 10- and 20-day moving averages, only to be recaptured by the former. The averages are now going sideways, and probably on the verge of a cross-under, so the bears may have a slight edge here. It remains to be seen how far they can take it. Earnings season gets underway in three weeks. As of Thursday last week, 1Q17 operating earnings estimates were $29.37, down $0.76 so far this quarter. The bar keeps getting lowered.
Nasdaq 100 index (mini): Currently net long 74.1k, down 673.
Of the top five Nasdaq 100 weights, Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOGL) enjoyed fresh new highs this week, while Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) were not that far away from their respective recent record highs.
Bulls continue to defend shorter-term daily moving averages, including Wednesday (FOMC decision day) when it rallied 0.6 percent. Interestingly, in that session, QQQ, the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 ETF, lost $446 million. In the week ended Wednesday, $775 million was withdrawn (courtesy of ETF.com).
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 24.7k, up 12.3k.
Support at 1347 came close to being tested when the cash dropped to 1353.47 on Tuesday. This was followed by a 1.5-percent jump on Wednesday, past its 50-day moving average. Bulls’ real test lies around 1392, which is where the index closed Friday. If this resistance gives way, it might even cause some squeeze.
End-February short interest on IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, stood at 117.6 million – a three-month high and up from 93.7 million from mid-January.
It might all come down to flows.
In the week ended Wednesday, $328 million moved into IWM (courtesy of ETF.com). This followed outflows of $1.1 billion in the prior three.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 47.7k, down 3.3k.
The right shoulder of a potential head-and-shoulders continued to develop on the cash. The post-FOMC, one-percent drop on Wednesday in particular points to bulls throwing up their hands in resignation – at least near term.
The level to watch is 99 and change, which is where the neckline lies. Right underneath – just south of 99 – lies trend-line support from early May last year. It is a must-save for the bulls.
VIX: Currently net short 100.6k, up 946.
Yet another week in which the cash was unable to sustain above the 50-day moving average. In fact, intraday both Wednesday and Friday it was pushed under 11 before it managed to close above.
In keeping with this, VXX, the iPath S&P 500 VIX short-term futures ETN, made yet another low. It almost feels like longs are capitulating. Month-to-date (as of Wednesday), it lost $162 million. This compares with inflows of $326 million post-November 8 presidential election last year.
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-87/
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
• DiscoverGold
Join the InvestorsHub Community
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
