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Tuesday, March 14, 2017 1:41:19 PM
1) Forum Energy Plc. (“FEP”)
2) During the year ended December 31, 2015, they sold 2,000,000 shares for $637,902. ($0.32/share)
3) After that sale they went from owning 24.05% to 18.42% of FEP. Assuming the $0.32/share holds, the 18.42% is worth about $2.1MM.
4) $2.1MM/400,000,000 shares = 0.00525 (1/2 cent per share).
5) If they have the same cash burn rate in 2016 as they did in 2015, that $637,902 is gone.
6) If they sell 6% of FEP each year to stay alive they will be out of money by the end of 2019.
7) FEP has basically one asset, a 70% interest in Service Contract 72 Reed Bank (SC 72), an offshore license which contains the Sampaguita Gas Field as well as several additional oil and gas opportunities.
8) Confirmed 3.4 trillion cubic feet of gas at $4 per thousand is $13.6B. If they have 20 trillion cubic feet it is $80B.
9) I have no idea what % of that goes to Forum, or how long it takes to get it out of the ground.
10) For discussion let's say they need a partner who takes 1/2, and after the government takes their cut it is another 1/2, and after costs it is another 1/2.
11) 13.3 /2 = 6.6 /2 = 3.3 /2 = $1.65B
12) Divide that by 10 years to extract? $165M
13) Multiply $165 by whatever is left of FECOF's ownership of FEP, shall we say 10%? $16.5M per year.
14) Divide that by 400,000,000 shares and you get earnings of $0.04/share per year.
15) At 5x we may see FECOF $0.20/share when the gas is flowing.
16) If it is 20 trillion FECOF $1.20/share is possible when the gas is flowing.
Was that so hard? Dinner time...
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