Trevena Inc (TRVN)

[XenaLives]

My apologies for the delay in posting a chart analysis, it takes a lot of time and concentration to do this, and it is only my opinion. I do not use charts for price forecasting so much as buy hold or sell decisions.Price is easily manipulated.

I will not attempt a mathematical explanation of the indicators but if you want to look at them I suggest Investopedia.com for definitions.

First I want to see the overall impact on the stock.

I'm starting with a three day chart to smooth out the effect of painting the tape at close.

A warning about volume - both the volume up and the volume down can be made up of wash trades between institutions or hedge funds. It can not be interpreted as the actual sale of shares.

I've found the FTR (Fisher Transform) is an excellent leading indicator and it is still strongly negative.

ADX does not show a definitive positive trend since 2015. This is most likely due to IPO participants doing a P&D and taking profits.

Post below contains an error - should be 4th quarter, but institutions did lighten up and we should be looking for evidence that they may be re-entering at some point.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=128903755



On the nine day chart (as you pull out in time the indicators become more general and abstract which sometimes gives insight) there is some bullishness just before the crash in FTR which indicates institutional interest (but they usually hedge with options in a case like this).

OBV was also slightly positive, but not what I would call truly bullish. Note that ADX was negative most of the time and it is truly bearish now.




The software I use allows me to back out and see what the chart looked like before the crash. It is slightly bullish but there is no confirmatory volume. That could come from lack of supply though, if it's a really good company a move like we've seen here can be used to displace retail, but it will take a while to work out the liquidity in the dump.



I've invested and lost in TTPH - a similar situation, but I kept studying the charts there and the insights were invaluable. I persisted (we women can be that way :) and kept a small investment and studying the charts. It turned out that the key in a situation like this (assuming the drug does have a sizeable market, fundamentals are critical) seems to be a narrowing of long term indicators and a switch to a positive bias. Then I saw a bump in volume intraday with a retrace. That was the perfect time to take a full position, and I was rewarded.

That is the sort of thing you want to watch for here if you are convinced of the stock's fundamental value.