Wednesday, February 15, 2017 6:46:57 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/14 2017 EOD
There was a PR for a 2.8MW Repeat Order for an O & G Customer in Marcellus.
Today was nice in that the PR had effect just like in the old days - up on rising volume. Maybe the market has become convinced? Based on the conventional and my unconventional TA it would seem that's likely.
The oscillators haven't completely gone positive yet, but they're moving quickly in that direction. My unconventional stuff suggests that we'll have near-term strengthening and this will drag the oscillators up.
Keep in mind that I presume a three-day window around catalyst events and expect a new trend will begin to develop after that. It's that trend that will, I think, give us a better read on the sustainability of any bullish sentiment.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 100:100 $0.7301/$0.7999.
09:30-09:44 opened the day with a 3,180 sell for $0.7480 & $0.7480 x 21, $0.747 x 50. Then came 9:30's b/a of 204:16.1K $0.7301/$0.75 (bids backed by presented 26K $0.73), 9:32's 5.7K $0.7488 (4.9K)/$0.7301, 9:34's b/a 104:500 $0.7301/$0.7450, 9:36's 154 $0.7310, 9:37's b/a 85:800 $0.7310/$0.7450 (bids backed by presented 26K $0.73), 9:39's 500 $0.74/$0.7350, 9:40's 100 $0.74, 9:42's b/a 9.9K:1.6K $0.7350/$0.7439, 9:42's 300 $0.7395/$0.74, 9:43's 7K $0.7400/18/10/05/36/19/00/01, and the period ended on 9:44's 100 $0.7436.
09:45-12:28 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7350/$0.7401 (narrowed to $0.7400/1 at 12:12) on 9:45's 228 $0.7404. B/a at 9:49 was 1.9K:1.4K $0.7400/18 (offers falling). Volume was interrupted by 9:54's 11.5K $0.7400/01/00/$0.7350/$0.74/$0.7375/ ... $0.74. B/a at 9:59 was 9.8K:200 $0.7350/$0.7401, 10:02 10K:200 $0.7350/$0.7401, 10:17 9.9K:400 $0.7350/$0.7401, 10:44 8.5K:700 $0.7350/$0.7401, 11:02 8.2K:900 $0.7350/$0.7401, 11:17 8.2K:900 $0.7350/$0.7401, 11:36 8.2K:600 $0.7350/$0.7401, 11:50 8.2K:500 $0.7350/$0.7401, 12:02 8.2K:900: $0.7350/$0.7401, 12:17 9.8K:800 $0.7400/1. The period ended on 12:28's 25.1K $0.74/$0.7350/$0.74/$0.7375/$0.74/$0.7350/ ... $0.74.
12:29-13:02 began with b/a at 12:30 of 6.7K:700 $0.7350/$0.7401. After eight no-trades minutes trade began a big rise following a brief low/no-volume rise to 12:38's 100 $0.7432 and a drop back to 12:46's 100 $0.7412 on 12:36's 9.8K $0.7401/05/01/05/10/01/03/05. A big higher-volume rise began on 12:52's 7.5K $0.7421/96. B/a at 12:54 was 400:300 $0.7422/99. 12:54's 800 hit $0.7461/99, 12:56's 18.4K hit $0.7499/$0.75 (followed by 12:57's 19.6K $0.75), 12:58's 100 hit $0.766, and the period ended when 13:02's 3.8K hit $0.7524/$0.77.
13:03-14:19 began low/no/medium/high-volume $0.76/7 through 13:17 on 13:03's 2.5K $0.7523. B/a at 13:03 was 1.2K:11.1K $0.7501/$0.77, 13:17 1.1K:9.1K $0.76/7. At 13:18 trade switched to extreme;y low/no-volume $0.7615/77, with lows and highs converging, through 13:55. B/a at 13:32 was 100:8.2K $0.7614/$0.77, 13:47 800:7.8K $0.7615/$0.77. At 13:56 trade went to extreme;y low/no-volume $0.7600/10. B/a at 14:04 was 400:589 $0.7600/10. The period ended when volume took a surge up 14:16-:19 doing ~19.2K $0.7600/$0.7724/$0.76.
14:20-14:43 had b/a at 14:21 of 900:400 $0.76/$0.7859. After ten no-trades minutes, began extreme;y low/no-volume $0.7702/$0.7857 on 14:30's 100 $0.778. B/a at 14:32 was 200:400 $0.77/$0.7859. The period ended on 14:43's 2K $0.7822.
14:44-14:58, after five no-trades minutes, seemed to begin the EOD volatility early on 14:49's 2K $0.78/$0.76/$0.78/$0.7776. B/a at 14:47 was 3.2K:400 $0.77/$0.7859, 14:54 900:2.4K $0.7600/68 (offers dropping quickly). Through 14:58 there was highly variable volume doing a wide $0.76/$0.785 and the period ended on 14:58's 9.6K $0.7600/28.
14:59-15:59 had b/a at 15:02 of 4K:500 $0.7600/26 (offers jiggling 26/27). Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7601/$0.7805, with falling highs, on 15:04's316 $0.762. B/a at 15:09 was 28.2K:500 $0.76/$0.7850, 15:19 29.2K:400 $0.76/$0.7720, 15:28 5.1K:500 $0.7625/52, 15:48 9.8K:1.8K $0.7700/39. 15:42's 3.7K did $0.778/9, starting a volume and price ramp, with 15:56 doing 14.7K $0.773/5, 15:58 doing 27.5K $0.78/9 and the period and day ending on 15:59's 7.5K $0.77.$0.788 with the close being 15:59's last $0.77 x 100 because there was no MM 16:00 closing trade.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 14 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 107,687, 35.22% of day's volume, with a $0.7575 VWAP. The count seems reasonable for the volume but the percentage of day's volume is higher than normal. However, I think this is a good thing today because of the wide distribution (see breakdown following) and the VWAP being so close to the day's $0.7578. Both VWAPs were pretty much centered around the day's mid-point. All this suggests a smaller fraction of the day's behavior was due to (perceived) manipulation and likely more real investor activity with bullish sentiment coming into the market (peeking at buy percentage below seems to confirm this). All this counters yesterday's stuff suggesting less bullishness.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said { There's a potential bearish head and shoulder pattern developing. It may not complete, in which case our normal trends are likely to develop. In this case I'm thinking a negative-bias near-term consolidation beginning. If the H & S completes, we have quite a lot of potential downside, using a measure rule.
Given the manipulation we've observed, frequently over some weeks now, I doubt the pattern will complete. But one never knows. } It never hurts to have a little positive PR - it's not certain yet, but it looks like today's behavior took that off the table.
Yesterday the fast EMA had begun descending while still below the slow EMA. Today put a stop to that as the fast EMA crossed above the slow EMA.
Today's PR and resulting action put the lie to yesterday's { ... the only notable thing is it looks very much like we are entering a short-term consolidation with mild negative bias. }
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA stopped the falling begun five days ago and made a small rise. The 10-day continued decreasing. If we hold here we'll get 1 (was 5) more days of falling 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 8 (was 8) days of rise and a return to descending for 4 days and then would begin rising again. If we hold here the 50 would decline 12 (was 19) days, and the 200-day would fall ~130 days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in every oscillator but full stochastic. Williams %R was still in oversold. Everything was below neutral.
Today had improvement in every oscillator I watch. Williams %R moved above oversold. RSI and full stochastic moved above neutral. Everything else is below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6746 and $0.8495 ($0.6692 and $0.8480 yesterday), are both rising and converging as the lower limit moves upward more quickly. The mid-point is rising.
All in, the improvement in the oscillators combined with rising volume on an up day and the behavior seen in the intra-day breakdown (buy percentage held up well, a rising VWAP with good volumes at the higher VWAPs, and good distribution of larger trades) makes me think this can continue for a few days, at least. As mentioned, it was good to see evidence that the market sentiment seems again responsive to positive PRs now.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, and the short percentage is just inside the low of my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage ended in the range that strongly suggests more near-term upside.
The spread widened but it was due to open low and, generally, rise throughout the day to close strongly, setting the day's high at 15:58 and closing only a about a penny and a quarter lower. In this case, on slightly rising volume, I think this suggests more near-term upside.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings improved, for the second consecutive day, to 14 negative and 10 positives from 15 and 9 respectively. Change since 01/10 is $0.0281, 3.86%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2139%, 0.0172%, -0.1548%, -0.1396%, -0.2936%, -0.0947%, 0.3236%, 0.2455%, and 0.2829%.
All in, everything here suggests continued near-term upside is most likely.
Bill
There was a PR for a 2.8MW Repeat Order for an O & G Customer in Marcellus.
Today was nice in that the PR had effect just like in the old days - up on rising volume. Maybe the market has become convinced? Based on the conventional and my unconventional TA it would seem that's likely.
The oscillators haven't completely gone positive yet, but they're moving quickly in that direction. My unconventional stuff suggests that we'll have near-term strengthening and this will drag the oscillators up.
Keep in mind that I presume a three-day window around catalyst events and expect a new trend will begin to develop after that. It's that trend that will, I think, give us a better read on the sustainability of any bullish sentiment.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 100:100 $0.7301/$0.7999.
09:30-09:44 opened the day with a 3,180 sell for $0.7480 & $0.7480 x 21, $0.747 x 50. Then came 9:30's b/a of 204:16.1K $0.7301/$0.75 (bids backed by presented 26K $0.73), 9:32's 5.7K $0.7488 (4.9K)/$0.7301, 9:34's b/a 104:500 $0.7301/$0.7450, 9:36's 154 $0.7310, 9:37's b/a 85:800 $0.7310/$0.7450 (bids backed by presented 26K $0.73), 9:39's 500 $0.74/$0.7350, 9:40's 100 $0.74, 9:42's b/a 9.9K:1.6K $0.7350/$0.7439, 9:42's 300 $0.7395/$0.74, 9:43's 7K $0.7400/18/10/05/36/19/00/01, and the period ended on 9:44's 100 $0.7436.
09:45-12:28 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7350/$0.7401 (narrowed to $0.7400/1 at 12:12) on 9:45's 228 $0.7404. B/a at 9:49 was 1.9K:1.4K $0.7400/18 (offers falling). Volume was interrupted by 9:54's 11.5K $0.7400/01/00/$0.7350/$0.74/$0.7375/ ... $0.74. B/a at 9:59 was 9.8K:200 $0.7350/$0.7401, 10:02 10K:200 $0.7350/$0.7401, 10:17 9.9K:400 $0.7350/$0.7401, 10:44 8.5K:700 $0.7350/$0.7401, 11:02 8.2K:900 $0.7350/$0.7401, 11:17 8.2K:900 $0.7350/$0.7401, 11:36 8.2K:600 $0.7350/$0.7401, 11:50 8.2K:500 $0.7350/$0.7401, 12:02 8.2K:900: $0.7350/$0.7401, 12:17 9.8K:800 $0.7400/1. The period ended on 12:28's 25.1K $0.74/$0.7350/$0.74/$0.7375/$0.74/$0.7350/ ... $0.74.
12:29-13:02 began with b/a at 12:30 of 6.7K:700 $0.7350/$0.7401. After eight no-trades minutes trade began a big rise following a brief low/no-volume rise to 12:38's 100 $0.7432 and a drop back to 12:46's 100 $0.7412 on 12:36's 9.8K $0.7401/05/01/05/10/01/03/05. A big higher-volume rise began on 12:52's 7.5K $0.7421/96. B/a at 12:54 was 400:300 $0.7422/99. 12:54's 800 hit $0.7461/99, 12:56's 18.4K hit $0.7499/$0.75 (followed by 12:57's 19.6K $0.75), 12:58's 100 hit $0.766, and the period ended when 13:02's 3.8K hit $0.7524/$0.77.
13:03-14:19 began low/no/medium/high-volume $0.76/7 through 13:17 on 13:03's 2.5K $0.7523. B/a at 13:03 was 1.2K:11.1K $0.7501/$0.77, 13:17 1.1K:9.1K $0.76/7. At 13:18 trade switched to extreme;y low/no-volume $0.7615/77, with lows and highs converging, through 13:55. B/a at 13:32 was 100:8.2K $0.7614/$0.77, 13:47 800:7.8K $0.7615/$0.77. At 13:56 trade went to extreme;y low/no-volume $0.7600/10. B/a at 14:04 was 400:589 $0.7600/10. The period ended when volume took a surge up 14:16-:19 doing ~19.2K $0.7600/$0.7724/$0.76.
14:20-14:43 had b/a at 14:21 of 900:400 $0.76/$0.7859. After ten no-trades minutes, began extreme;y low/no-volume $0.7702/$0.7857 on 14:30's 100 $0.778. B/a at 14:32 was 200:400 $0.77/$0.7859. The period ended on 14:43's 2K $0.7822.
14:44-14:58, after five no-trades minutes, seemed to begin the EOD volatility early on 14:49's 2K $0.78/$0.76/$0.78/$0.7776. B/a at 14:47 was 3.2K:400 $0.77/$0.7859, 14:54 900:2.4K $0.7600/68 (offers dropping quickly). Through 14:58 there was highly variable volume doing a wide $0.76/$0.785 and the period ended on 14:58's 9.6K $0.7600/28.
14:59-15:59 had b/a at 15:02 of 4K:500 $0.7600/26 (offers jiggling 26/27). Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7601/$0.7805, with falling highs, on 15:04's316 $0.762. B/a at 15:09 was 28.2K:500 $0.76/$0.7850, 15:19 29.2K:400 $0.76/$0.7720, 15:28 5.1K:500 $0.7625/52, 15:48 9.8K:1.8K $0.7700/39. 15:42's 3.7K did $0.778/9, starting a volume and price ramp, with 15:56 doing 14.7K $0.773/5, 15:58 doing 27.5K $0.78/9 and the period and day ending on 15:59's 7.5K $0.77.$0.788 with the close being 15:59's last $0.77 x 100 because there was no MM 16:00 closing trade.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 14 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 107,687, 35.22% of day's volume, with a $0.7575 VWAP. The count seems reasonable for the volume but the percentage of day's volume is higher than normal. However, I think this is a good thing today because of the wide distribution (see breakdown following) and the VWAP being so close to the day's $0.7578. Both VWAPs were pretty much centered around the day's mid-point. All this suggests a smaller fraction of the day's behavior was due to (perceived) manipulation and likely more real investor activity with bullish sentiment coming into the market (peeking at buy percentage below seems to confirm this). All this counters yesterday's stuff suggesting less bullishness.
Notice the nice distribution of the larger trades and the buy percentage holding up quite well, as did the periods' VWAPs. This is the most "normal" market I've seen in this symbol in quite a long time. Maybe DJ has finally got some confidence instilled in the market again with the quarterly CC and this latest order PR.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:44 16880 $0.7301 $0.7488 $12,567.63 $0.7445 5.52% 70.93% Incl 09:32 $0.7488 4,900
12:28 69341 $0.7350 $0.7405 $51,282.15 $0.7396 22.68% 68.32% Incl 12:28 $0.7400 9,700 10,000
13:02 68428 $0.7401 $0.7700 $51,212.80 $0.7484 22.38% 61.10% Incl 12:36 $0.7401 4,900 12:56 $0.7500 15,989
12:57 $0.7500 5,000 14,600
14:19 56757 $0.7523 $0.7724 $43,396.07 $0.7646 18.56% 57.92% Incl 13:08 $0.7689 5,000 $0.7680 5,100
14:18 $0.7700 5,098
14:58 24878 $0.7600 $0.7857 $19,156.77 $0.7700 8.14% 58.35% Incl 14:51 $0.7770 7,500
15:59 65989 $0.7601 $0.7900 $51,453.56 $0.7797 21.58% 52.04% Incl 15:56 $0.7750 5,000 8,100
15:58 $0.7860 6,800
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
It's really nice to see the PR have an effect like it used to have. With the improvement begun yesterday I wonder if there was the usual "leak" in advance of the PR.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -0.27% 0.01% 4.61% 5.48% 2.79%
Prior 2.74% 4.29% 0.69% -2.67% -32.35%
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said { There's a potential bearish head and shoulder pattern developing. It may not complete, in which case our normal trends are likely to develop. In this case I'm thinking a negative-bias near-term consolidation beginning. If the H & S completes, we have quite a lot of potential downside, using a measure rule.
Given the manipulation we've observed, frequently over some weeks now, I doubt the pattern will complete. But one never knows. } It never hurts to have a little positive PR - it's not certain yet, but it looks like today's behavior took that off the table.
Yesterday the fast EMA had begun descending while still below the slow EMA. Today put a stop to that as the fast EMA crossed above the slow EMA.
Today's PR and resulting action put the lie to yesterday's { ... the only notable thing is it looks very much like we are entering a short-term consolidation with mild negative bias. }
On my one-year chart the 50 and 200-day SMAs continue falling. The 20-day SMA stopped the falling begun five days ago and made a small rise. The 10-day continued decreasing. If we hold here we'll get 1 (was 5) more days of falling 10-day SMA. The 20-day would have 8 (was 8) days of rise and a return to descending for 4 days and then would begin rising again. If we hold here the 50 would decline 12 (was 19) days, and the 200-day would fall ~130 days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in every oscillator but full stochastic. Williams %R was still in oversold. Everything was below neutral.
Today had improvement in every oscillator I watch. Williams %R moved above oversold. RSI and full stochastic moved above neutral. Everything else is below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6746 and $0.8495 ($0.6692 and $0.8480 yesterday), are both rising and converging as the lower limit moves upward more quickly. The mid-point is rising.
All in, the improvement in the oscillators combined with rising volume on an up day and the behavior seen in the intra-day breakdown (buy percentage held up well, a rising VWAP with good volumes at the higher VWAPs, and good distribution of larger trades) makes me think this can continue for a few days, at least. As mentioned, it was good to see evidence that the market sentiment seems again responsive to positive PRs now.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, and the short percentage is just inside the low of my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage ended in the range that strongly suggests more near-term upside.
The spread widened but it was due to open low and, generally, rise throughout the day to close strongly, setting the day's high at 15:58 and closing only a about a penny and a quarter lower. In this case, on slightly rising volume, I think this suggests more near-term upside.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings improved, for the second consecutive day, to 14 negative and 10 positives from 15 and 9 respectively. Change since 01/10 is $0.0281, 3.86%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.2139%, 0.0172%, -0.1548%, -0.1396%, -0.2936%, -0.0947%, 0.3236%, 0.2455%, and 0.2829%.
All in, everything here suggests continued near-term upside is most likely.
Bill
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