Friday, February 10, 2017 12:47:39 PM
2/9 Ultra-Short-Term Indicators: Today we finally got some climactic readings on the CVI and Participation Index - UP. I do note that these readings are not as high as the previous highs (I only annotated a few recent tops) on a rally burst. I suspect this is an exhaustion, or will prove to be in the next few days.
Conclusion: It's getting more and more difficult to determine whether market behavior is organic or reactionary. I've been leaning toward reactionary and I think today's trading as well as a few other rally bursts prove this. Indicators are mixed, but I believe we are looking at a price exhaustion on the rally given ultra-short-term climactic readings. Current short-term indicators are rising which is positive, but they are reaching previous highs, meaning the market could be vulnerable to decline. The bearish rising wedge certainly agrees, but IT indicators are rising again, as well as the PMO. The picture is murky and surprise presidential tweets or announcements only muddy the waters further.
Conclusion: It's getting more and more difficult to determine whether market behavior is organic or reactionary. I've been leaning toward reactionary and I think today's trading as well as a few other rally bursts prove this. Indicators are mixed, but I believe we are looking at a price exhaustion on the rally given ultra-short-term climactic readings. Current short-term indicators are rising which is positive, but they are reaching previous highs, meaning the market could be vulnerable to decline. The bearish rising wedge certainly agrees, but IT indicators are rising again, as well as the PMO. The picture is murky and surprise presidential tweets or announcements only muddy the waters further.
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