DollarTime..
The revised estimates are based on assumed 50,000 cases per month.
How we get 50,000 cases? If products are sold at 10,000 locations and one bottle is sold per location, this translates into 10,000 bottles per day, or 1,666 cases per day, or (30 X 1,666 ) = 50,000 cases per month.
Assumed 50,000 cases per month.
50,000 cases X 6 bottles per case = 300000 bottles per month. Lets say conservatively $10 per bottle accruing to the company. Then,
Revenues = 300000 bottles X $10 = $3,000,000 per month.
For the year, $3,000,000 X 12 =$36 millions. This could go up as a result of sales in Europe and Canada.
Consider STZ statistics as comparison:
STZ has a market capilization (MC) of $30 billions, with an annual sales of $6.5 billions for the period ending Feb 2016 (these statistics are from Yahoo Finance). Hence market capitalization is about 4.61 multiples of sales figures.
The MC to sales multiplier for a smaller start up like ICNB could be larger than 4.61 imo. Lets assume this is 50% higher for ICNB. Then multiplier for ICNB = 4.61x1.5 = 6.91
Estimated valuation for ICNB:
As stated above for ICNB, revenues from sales is estimated at $36 millions, then multiply this number by 6.91 to arrive at the potential Market Capitalization, MC = $36 million X 6.91 = $249 millions. ICNB has about 800 million OS, this translates into potential PPS = 249/800 = .31 cents.
If you believe 2 bottles per location, the valuations would move to .62 cents easy.
This valuation of .31 cents will be close to stervc's estimates, if he uses 50,000 cases per month. His 30,000 cases scenario translates into PPS=.192 cents. But if he uses 50,000 cases scenario, it might be very close to the valuation number I calculated.
$ICNB$$
This is my opinion only, do your own DD and trade at your own risks.
