Conatus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (CNAT)

[Ponch73]

staccani and Inoviorulez,

Do either of you have a sense for exactly how unusual or extraordinary the Emricasan statistical results are coming out of phase 2/2a? It is my understanding that only 20% of gastroenterological compounds graduate from phase 2 to FDA approval. Are most compounds showing promise similar to Emricasan at this stage of clinical trials or is there something specifically efficacious about Emricasan -- aside from its relevance to treating liver cirrhosis -- that separates it from the pack (thereby increasing its odds of receiving FDA approval)?

Additionally, do either of you have a sense for how savvy Novartis is at evaluating and investing in developmental stage compounds? Does its track record suggest that Emricasan is a low-risk flier for the company in a big potential NASH market or a more significant commitment?

Thanks in advance for your perspective.