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Re: Wild-bill post# 27857

Thursday, 01/12/2017 11:06:06 AM

Thursday, January 12, 2017 11:06:06 AM

Post# of 29204
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 01/11 2017 EOD

Everything now seems to support entrance into short-term consolidation with the high of a range getting defined either by today's readings or what happens in the next couple days. Short and buy percentages were both very high even though there were apparently no "bid walkers" in today.

Today was an open high, go higher and after 9:43 drop to the day's low, $0.73, by 9:48. The an extremely low/no-volume flattish period was followed by a small step lower at 11:34, another extremely low/no-volume flattish period through ~13:40, a step up to $0.765 for just a couple minutes, an extremely low/no-volume flattish ~$0.735/$0.75 period, and finally a very low-volume price-volatile period into the close, which had no closing MM trade.

There were no pre-market trades.

09:30-11:31 opened the day with a 513 buy for $0.75 & 780 more at $0.75. B/a at 9:31 was 500:20 $0.7550/4 (offers backed by presented 35 $0.76 and 10K $0.7970). Then came 9:32's 9.2K $0.7550/1/01/0, 9:36's 5K $0.7500 (3.8K)/33, 9:39's 100 $0.76, 9:39's b/a 4.5K:20 $0.7500/54 (offer backed by presented 35 $0.76 and10K $0.7970), 9:43's400 $0.75, 9:48's 8.7K $0.7376/$0.75/$0.76/$0.7660 (6.4K).$0.76/$0.73, 9:49's b/a 400:500 $0.73/7, and 9:50's 200 $0.73.

That began a dropping of the offers and extremely low/no-volume $0.73/$0.75 (e.g. no trades 10:13-:27, :29-:48, and 11:13-:30). B/a at 9:51 was 900:500 $0.73/7, 9:58 900:600 $0.73/$0.765, 10:04 900:400 $0.73/5, 10:17 1.8K:300 $0.73/5, 10:32 200:200 $0.7301/$0.7509, 10:47 300:300 $0.7301/$0.7475, 11:02 200:300 $0.7302/$0.7475, 11:17 400:300 $0.7303/$0.7475, 11:32 200:100 $0.7304/$0.7449. The period ended on 11:31's 2.5K $0.7362 (2K)/50.

11:32-11:34, after one no-trades minute, did a rapid down/up on 11:33's 2K $0.7328 and 11:34's 17K $0.7649/46/50/75/$0.75/$0.7449/50/57/75/$0.75 (8.8K)/$0.7305/06/07.

11:35-13:41 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7302/$0.745 (excepting 12:06's 100 $0.7453) after 11:37-:38's 5K $0.7331/60 and :42's 9.8K $0.7302/$0.7447. B/a at 11:45 was 2.5K:1K $0.7302/$0.7475, 12:02 200:800 $0.7303/$0.7475, 12:17 200:1.3K $0.7306/$0.7450. Volume was interrupted by 12:22's 6.6K $0.7315/10/07/02. B/a at 12:32 was 200:1.2K $0.7303/$0.7450, 12:48 200:1K $0.7303/$0.745, 13:03 300:500 $0.7304/$0.745, 13:17 100:500 $0.7304/$0.745. Volume was again interrupted by 13:28's 7.5K $0.7445 (6.8K)/$0.7305/2. B/a at 13:32 was 1.8K:700 $0.7302/$0.745. The period ended on 13:41's 500 $0.7450.

13:42-15:36, after 13:42's 2.2K $0.7475/00/$0.7650 push up, did an extremely low/no-volume sag back down and continued that volume after the sag. B/a at 13:47 was 200:600 $0.7401/$0.7650. 13:58's 502 did $0.7499. B/a at 14:02 was 00:2.1K $0.7402/99. 14:04's 5.7K did $0.7499 (5K)/50/07/01/99. B/a at 14:13 was 400:300 $0.7352/$0.7499, 14:17 400:300 $0.7352/$0.7499. 14:18's 150 did $0.7352. B/a at 14:28 was 200:400 $0.7353/$0.7499, 14:50 200:600 $0.7355/$0.7499, 15:03 400:500 $0.7356/$0.7475, 15:17 1.4K:600 $0.736/$0.7475, 15:32 700:3.3K $0.7432/$0.7459. The period ended on 15:36's 150 $0.7446.

15:37-15:59, after seven no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume EOD price volatility in the range of $0.736/$0.76 after 15:44's 7.6K $0.7459 (3.8K)/$0.75 (3.1K)/$0.7439/40. B/a at 15:47 was 1.4K:1.2K $0.7451/$0.75, 15:53 200:800 $0.7361/$0.75. The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.3K $0.7501/0/$0.76/$0.7500/1/0 and the official close was on 15:59's last $0.75 x 200 sell because there was no MM closing trade.

There were no AH trades.

In/Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 6 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 39,511, 32.28% of day's volume, with a $0.7533 VWAP. for the volume, the count looks reasonable. The percentage of day's volume is a bit on the high side. Nothing excessive though as today didn't have "larger larger trades". The VWAP is higher than the day's $0.7476. Looking at intra-day behavior, when larger trades occurred, buy percentages (see below) and short percentage, my best guess is some momo traders or retail investors or shorters were doing buying today. Shorters seem less likely as they generally are astute enough to get into the lower price ranges.

Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
11:31 34612 $0.7300 $0.7733 $26,064.02 $0.7530 28.28% 53.79% Incl 09:48 $0.7660 6,400 10:01 $0.7500 4,511
11:34 19000 $0.7305 $0.7649 $14,297.58 $0.7525 15.52% 64.44% Incl 11:34 $0.7649 7,600
13:41 33315 $0.7302 $0.7463 $24,677.90 $0.7407 27.22% 65.50% Incl 11:42 $0.7447 9,200 13:28 $0.7445 6,800
15:36 17950 $0.7352 $0.7650 $13,363.81 $0.7445 14.66% 64.19% Incl 14:04 $0.7499 5,000
15:59 16425 $0.7360 $0.7600 $12,282.40 $0.7478 13.42% 59.46%

The buy percentage is unusually high and stable. This was without the apparent presence of any aggressive "bid walkers". My best guess for the reason would be momo traders or retail investors buying on apparent price weakness the last few days or shorters doing covering buys. Note the short percentage (see below) is very high too. This suggests some potential for shorters selling too, possibly supported by the most recent short interest report showing a small increase.

The price range being up, based on VWAP and the following, might be due to MMs covering yesterday and ending short-term long. Holding price up as they dump those small long positions would be common behavior.

On the traditional TA front, movements were:

__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 2.74% 1.39% 3.11% 1.05% -42.39%
Prior -2.67% 0.00% 0.00% -0.12% 85.20%

Volume puts the lie to the apparent improvements seen. Add in my though above about MMs being short-term long and the volume, I think, is more likely "The Truth Teller" here.

On my minimal chart, yesterday I noted: { the most striking thing is that visually it looks as if a consolidating bottom to the trend is forming, but it's only two days and today it came on rising volume, suggesting the down move has growing strength since the volume isn't high enough to signal an end to the trend (capitulation). So I don't really believe that visual "bottoming" hint. }

Today reinforces that visual suggestion. The volume reinforces that as well. This would, if it does get into consolidation, begin to define the range of the short-term consolidation. So, today I'm a believer.

The fast EMA stopped its decline, as yesterday's slowing rate of descent suggested might occur, and rose. The slow EMA continued declining at a relatively steady rate. We now have something suggesting the fast could cross above the slow in the near-term. If we are consolidating though the cross above will be minimal, at best, and more likely see the fast EMA flatten or drop as a leg down within consolidation begins.

The experimental 13-period Bollinger lower limit is running essentially flat while the upper limit continues descending, but at a slower rate, continuing to move the mid-point lower. Trading range was wrapped around the mid-point.

On my one-year chart all the SMAs continue to decline. i don't see any point right now in detailing how long that will continue in the current scenario. If we hold this range the 10-day SMA could see a stop to the descent tomorrow. The 20-day would continue to decline 10 more days, the 50 for 40 more days and the 200 maybe 175 days (visual estimate).

Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in RSI, Williams %R, full stochastic, ADX-related, and MFI (in oversold). Accumulation/distribution and momentum continued to see marginal improvement and the latter is was slightly above neutral.

Today improvement occurred in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me, left oversold), momentum (above neutral), Williams %R (above neutral), and ADC-related. Weakening occurred in full stochastic and it moved below neutral.

The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6957 and $0.7929 ($0.6958 and $0.7944 yesterday), continue converging as the upper declines as the lower limit is almost flat, causing a still-descending mid-point.

All in, I think we have the first confirmation of entering short-term consolidation with, for the moment, a short-term positive bias. However, that's really iffy though because of the volume, which oddly enough is also one of the factors suggesting consolidation is actually occurring. Today may have defined the range high - who knows.



Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction. Unfortunately the short percentage is well above my desired range and the buy percentage is at a level that is unsustainable - suggesting it's an outlier that is starting a short-term trend that is not sustainable.

The spread widened and if one believes we have begun an upward move is a positive. The volume puts that in doubt for me and I suspect the spread is confirming the short percentages suggestion of lower, and that buy percentage won't be sustained. The latter item suggests weakening starting in a couple days, or less is likely,

The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady at 17 negatives and 7 positives. Change since 12/06 is -$0.1947, -20.67%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.9248%, -0.9789%, -0.8671%, -0.6975%, -0.5381%, -0.7327%, -1.0983%, -0.9164%, and 0.8671%.

All in, the short and buy percentages, bolstered by the spread and volume, suggest near-term near-term strength that won't be sustainable, supporting that we have entered short-term consolidation.

Bill

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