I'm not a genius (I assume you meant genius rather than the taxonomic rank used in the biological classification of living and fossil organisms in biology), but I have an MBA and 20 years in the financial industry. I've picked some clunkers in my day - I thought that the Palm Pilot company was going to take off; I believed in Polaroid because of their patents and vision, but my biggest blunder was my very first stock purchase, Exodus Communications.
Now, someone may want to report this post for being off-topic, but here is where this post is important regarding JAMN. I didn't really understand Exodus when I bought it - I bought it because of the recommendation and the hype. It was during the whole "dot com" bubble that was going on - tech ruled and Exodus at the time was a name, so why not buy it? If I had done my homework, I would have seen that there wasn't much beyond the hype - they weren't growing and they were overextended; they didn't have enough cash coming in to cover their expenses.
Well guess who else doesn't have enough cash coming in to cover expenses? That's right - JAMN! Look at some of the old financial reports. Accounts receivable used to be almost a quarter's worth of revenue - that means that the people they were selling to were very late paying for the product. Look at the accounts receivable now - almost nothing. So people have caught up with what they owe, or JAMN has written off the accounts as uncollectable. In the meantime, their accounts payable - what they owe - keeps on rising - so they didn't use the money coming in to pay off their existing bills - they just got further into debt.
Sales are down 41% - that should be alarming to you because you have to remember a couple of things. The RealCups are the real sales of the company. You guys are assuming that if it can be bought at Amazon then it must be shipping, but you're ignoring the possibility that what Amazon is selling could be 5 or more months old. Their quarterly statement clearly said that they're using another roaster for bean and ground coffee and that they're looking for credit for single-serve. That's corporate-speak to say that they're not working with MP anymore. Notice how they don't talk about Bike Cafes anymore? Where is their talk about Korea and Chile - weren't sales skyrocketing in Korea and Chile? What about the sports stadiums? Don't just listen to what they're saying - read and look for the stuff that they're not saying - look at the promises they made a year ago and see if those promises held true.
Rohan has said from day 1 that this company was started with a 52 acre farm in Jamaica. Notice that he never says that he's the one (not JAMN) who owns the farm and that they can only farm on 12 acres of that land.
You can't just look for the positive and hope; you have to consider the negative. The stock is now under a penny. They have $6 million in debt and payables and now it looks like that could be their annual sales! Sales for the quarter were down 41% - what if some of that includes RealCups and the next quarter has an even bigger drop?!
If you're going to invest, you need to do it with your eyes wide open. Don't just listen to what the company says.
