Lion, let me add a comment on why I think we MIGHT run out of natgas in late March or April. First, we can not drain storage no lower that 85% of capacity... the last 15% can not be pulled out. I also consider 25% of capacity as a serious drain.
I also want to point out a few things that you don't "see" even though they are right in front of your eyes. (no sarcasm intended)
Natgas closed Thursday at $3.51/mmBtu, the highest since December 18, 2014. This was despite an in-line withdrawal. Moreover, there are only 118 rigs drilling natgas, a pitiful number if natgas demand soars.
Natgas is up 34% in 3 weeks! Is this just because of market sentiment, or do the major buyers see the same thing that I see? On the other hand, some experts say that natgas is trading 25% overvalued. They obviously don't see what the bulls see!
Whoever is right or wrong depends solely on the weather and drilling activity from now until the end of April 2017. Keep in mind that any increased natgas drilling will take at least 2 months before gas reaches the market. Also keep in mind that there is a shortage of experiences drilling crews.
If you believe in global warming due to CO2, you will be blind to my bullish argument and should dump CHK. On the other hand, if you believe that the current solar minimum is a signal of very cold winters coming over the next 3-4 years, you will see why I raise the possibility of a gas shortage by late March or April.
My advice for you would be to go up on YouTube.com and watch a hundred videos that argue the issue of global warming verses a coming ice age. Research the coming winter until you are exhausted and just can't study anymore. Then come back to me and lets have a real discussion on the future of CHK.
The reason I say this is because the price of CHK depends mostly on how cold it gets this winter and how cold it looks going into the next 5 to 10 years.
And yes, I know that betting on the weather is kinda stupid. But I also know that a bet on Chesapeake, assuming management is doing a great job, is the exact same as betting on the weather. You can not separate the two. Said differently to drive home the point, if you are long on CHK, you best friend is a top-notch weatherman! The same applies to going short.
I am a CHK bull because, as a retired sea captain, I have a better understanding of the weather than most investors! I can read a weather chart with my eyes closed! I understand the wind resulting from high and low pressure centers. I also understand blocking and all the weather terminology. I can navigate by the stars and notice that nights are more cloudy than usual. Weird droughts in different areas that never before had a drought. My experience tells me that these are signs of a bitter cold winter coming. In fact, I see an ice age by 2020 that will last for at least a decade, maybe two! I have never in my life seen so many strange changes in the heavens. Lots of snow all over Europe and Russia. Bitter cold in Asia. Deep snow cover in Siberia. No ice sheet in the Arctic. Strange patterns in the upper polar vortex over the Arctic. The polar jet stream coming to the US off the Pacific instead of down from Canada. Leaves turning brown too fast and etc.
Point being... study the weather!
