Friday, December 02, 2016 10:36:02 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 12/02 2016 EOD
Yesterday I said { The (un)conventional TA all suggest near-term improvement, but for the increasingly weakening volume. } and then I blew my change for fame and fortune by adding { "Volume is the truth teller". I'll go with the volume and say I think near-term will cease VWAP improvement and, adding in my TFH friend, suggest we'll see higher volume, increasing short percentage and weakening price within consolidation. }
Well, not completely - we got higher volume and short percentage although short percentage hasn't yet reached above the mid-point of my desired range.
Today again all the unconventional TA indicates continued bullishness. It is now trending and I expect the alert bulletins to start hitting and bring in the momo traders soon. Maybe some retail too, afraid they'll miss the big run up.
I still expect the shorters to pile in at some point but I can't say at what price they won't be able to resist any longer. If we get a real high-volume spike I think that would do it.
Anyway, near-term bullish.
Today was odd in that until ~11:00 we were absolutely flattish extremely low/no-volume $0.9000/26. Then, apparently, the west coasties arrived and started pushing price inexorably higher on mostly low/no-volume interrupted frequently by one-minute volume spikes that each (mostly) move price up a notch. By 11:50 their job was done and volume completely dissipated. That allowed price to drop from the achieved high of $0.9486 at 11:50 to $0.9201 at 12:34. That began a long, extremely low/no-volume $0.92xx/$0.9351, with a couple small steps up in the lows, through 15:28. Then 15:29 began the EOD volatility kicked in and produced three steps up to close the day at $0.9495, up 4.95 cents from yesterday's close.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:38 opened the day with a 3,888 $0.90 buy and $0.9026 x 100, $0.90 x 9, and $0.9001 x 200. B/a at 9:31 was 10K:1K $0.9000/25. Then came 9:32's 5.8K $0.9005/00/01/00, 9:34's 200 $0.9023, 9:35's 200 $0.9025, 9:37's b/a 400:100 $0.9002/25, 9:41's 100 $0.9025, 9:42's 4.6K $0.9005 (4K)/06/26, 9:51's 600 $0.9025, 9:56's 421 $0.9024/5, 10:02's 700 $0.9025, 10:03's b/a 400:1.3K $0.9024/5. That began extremely low/no-volume (e.g. 12 minutes no trades) $0.9024/5. B/a at 10:20 300:2K $0.9024/5A, 10:32 400:2.1K $0.9024/5.
10:45's trade would have a major buy percentage effect (10:30 was 17.17% 17.6K, 10:45 50.96% 30.8K), as it was a high percentage of all prior volume, so I ended the period at the last prior trade at 10:38.
10:39-10:53, after six no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $0.9024/5 on 10:45's 13K $0.9024 (500)/5. The period ended on 10:53's 100 $0.9025.
10:46-11:50, after two no-trades minutes and 10:47's b/a at 10:47 600:600 $0.9024/5, started with a very low/no-volume $0.9024/5 on 10:48's 100 $0.9025 before beginning a strong rise on higher volume. This began with 10:55's 12.7K $0.9025/6->$0.9024/5 and 10:56's 7.1K $0.9100/$0.9080/73/30, leaving b/a at 1.3K:200 $0.9032/$0.91. Then came 11:03's b/a of 700:100 $0.9064/$0.91, 11:14's 300 $0.9105/$0.918, 11:17's b/a 900:349 $0.9120/80, and 11:25's ~1.8K $0.917/$0.927, 11:30's b/a 2.1K:4.9K $0.9163/$0.9270, 11:42's10.7K $0.9203/$0.93, 11:43's 200 $0.9306/$0.94. The period ended on 11:50's 5.3K $0.9323/$0.9486 (5K).
11:51-12:33, before beginning to sag, began a mostly low volume $0.9326/$0.945 sideways move that had 11:53's b/a 900:479 $0.9325/$0.9450. The sag began with 12:02's b/a of 1.4K:200 $0.9390/$0.9449 and then 12:04's traded 2.2K $0.9429/00/23/00/$0.9342/01, 12:17's b/a 1.2K:1.3K $0.9303/99, 12:21's traded 480 $0.9399/01, 12:28-:31's traded 13.4K $0.9306/05/11/05/07/06/00/49/25/$0.9349/00, and the period ended on 12:32-:33's traded 2.2K $0.9349/01/00/$0.9203/$0.9349/$0.9201. 12:33's b/a ended at 1K:300 $0.9201/$0.9350
12:34-15:28 began extremely low/no-volume $0.9246/$0.935 with 12:40's b/a at 600:600 $0.9205/$0.9350 and 12:42's 110 $0.935. B/a at 12:48 was 900:300 $0.9206/$0.9350, 13:03 1K:400 $0.9210/$0.9351, 13:17 1.2K:300 $0.9212/$0.9351, 13:32 1K:300 $0.9232/$0.9351, 13:47 800:400 $0.9234/$0.9351, 14:04 700:400 $0.9237/$0.9351, 14:17 1K:400 $0.9240/$0.9351, 14:32 700:600 $0.9243/$0.9351, 14:47 1K:300 $0.9246/$0.9351, 15:02 400:300 $0.9248/$0.9351, 15:18 500:1K $0.9254/$0.9350. The period ended on 15:28's 100 $0.9249.
15:29-16:00 began typical EOD volatility on 15:29's 3.3K $0.9349/$0.9256/$0.9350/42/51/50/51/52/97. B/a at 15:33 was 600:300 $0.9201/$0.9401. Through 15:46 trade was mostly low-volume $0.9351/$0.9401. 14:47-:48 did an aggregate 32.8K $0.9400/1/$0.92/$0.9401/$0.93/$0.9401/$0.92/$0.9401/2/$0.9450/$0.93/$0.9440/$0.9303/$0.9440/1/2/$0.9450/$0.9300/03. B/a at 15:48 was 2.3K:4.7K $0.9300/$0.9450. The period ended on 15:59's 1.8K $0.9300/75/00/$0.9450 and 16:00's 700 buy for $0.9495, up $0.0495 from yesterday's close.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 4 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 25,000, 11.61% of day's volume, with a $0.9374 VWAP. For the day's volume both the count and percentage of day's trade volume are very low. Moreover, for a bullish run up, which it seems was emulated today, these are laughable. However, the VWAP was above the day's $0.9251 so someone is getting convinced here.
If "they" can continue this it will eventually pull in the retailers, day and momo traders, etc. who might be afraid they are missing a big run up. As soon as some of the alert publications catch it we'll see a huge volume increase and price push higher, albeit very short-lived unless they can scare the shorts enough (not easily done) to produce a "short squeeze".
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart the trade range had remained comfortably within the rising triangle's (lower right orange lines) adjusted boundaries. Today that changed as the high and close was above the ~$0.9414 horizontal resistance. It was on rising volume too. If we close above it again, especially on rising volume again, a break out is confirmed. It's a strong resistance though as the recent several attempts to move above it, most on rising volume, have failed to break out.
The high and close also penetrated the experimental 13-period's upper Bollinger limit. Only twice in the last 150 days have we seen this happen and maintain a rise of more than just a few days. Going back a year the results are the same sort - only a few times has a rise lasted more that a few days.
The limits have begun converging again. As mentioned several times recently, they were at points suggesting a move was near and yesterday I noted { ... That offers hope the coming movement is higher, although that would go against our history, fundamentals, and the shorters movement I'm expecting to appear. } Well, today is the first step in seeing if we can break the pattern or not.
I also said { With the continued declining volume as VWAP elevates a bit I think shorters are licking their chops. That makes me suspect we'll quickly see an increase in trade volume, reducing VWAP and increasing short percentage. }
Well, we got the increasing volume and the short percentage has begun increasing (see below), now sitting near the middle of my desired range. The VWAP though made the third consecutive day of increase. While those who are trying to move the price up operate unopposed by the shorters this will continue. If the shorters wait too long and the momo crowd piles in they will have lost the battle but may still win the war - the momo crowd is quite fickle.
On my one-year chart we got a high enough close to turn the 10-day SMA upward and the the 20-day SMA continued rising while the 50 and 200-day SMAs continued declining. If we hold this range the 20-day will continue rising eight (was four) more days and the 10-day will rise continuously and the 50 will drop another ~26 days and the 200 about 180ish days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch flip-flopped, consistent with consolidation, going from marginal improvement in all but ADX-related to improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R, full stochastic, and ADX-related. Weakening occurred in momentum.
Today all but MFI (untrusted by me) improved, substantially in all but accumulation/distribution and ADX-related. RSI, momentum, Williams %R and full stochastic are above neutral and Williams %R is just below overbought while full stochastic is nearing it overbought but not too close yet. Another good day will likely get it there though as %K moves relatively rapidly.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.8734 and $0.9475 ($0.8675 and $0.9566 yesterday) resumed converging with a falling mid-point as the upper limit declines more quickly than the lower limit rises.
All in, ignoring the TFH thesis and manipulation, the conventional TA now has three days of rising range and two days of rising volume. The oscillators are going more cohesively positive now. If there's anyone in the market with an interest, the rises and associated signs are likely to catch the attention of the alert publications and the momo and swing traders should start coming in.
This would put me in the near-term bullish camp expecting a spike.
But I just can't shake the thought that the shorters are awaiting good volume on an unjustified rise to strike. Was today's small short percentage rise the beginning? I don't know.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction and the short percentage is in the middle of my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage is in the range of sustainable price appreciation for the third consecutive day.
The spread is wide, but not too wide for a move up produced by an odd day such as today's intra-day behavior was. In context I think it's a positive.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings, for the third consecutive day, improved to 13 negatives and 11 positives from 14 and 10 respectively. Change since 10/28 is $0.0149, 1.64%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.1218%, -0.4019, %-0.5046%, -0.7608%, -0.7208%, -0.6795%, -0.7820%, -0.5530%, -0.9605%, and -1.4049%.
All in these are the most consistently positive readings seen in a while and, further, they are now trending. These make me near-term bullish.
Bill
Yesterday I said { The (un)conventional TA all suggest near-term improvement, but for the increasingly weakening volume. } and then I blew my change for fame and fortune by adding { "Volume is the truth teller". I'll go with the volume and say I think near-term will cease VWAP improvement and, adding in my TFH friend, suggest we'll see higher volume, increasing short percentage and weakening price within consolidation. }
Well, not completely - we got higher volume and short percentage although short percentage hasn't yet reached above the mid-point of my desired range.
Today again all the unconventional TA indicates continued bullishness. It is now trending and I expect the alert bulletins to start hitting and bring in the momo traders soon. Maybe some retail too, afraid they'll miss the big run up.
I still expect the shorters to pile in at some point but I can't say at what price they won't be able to resist any longer. If we get a real high-volume spike I think that would do it.
Anyway, near-term bullish.
Today was odd in that until ~11:00 we were absolutely flattish extremely low/no-volume $0.9000/26. Then, apparently, the west coasties arrived and started pushing price inexorably higher on mostly low/no-volume interrupted frequently by one-minute volume spikes that each (mostly) move price up a notch. By 11:50 their job was done and volume completely dissipated. That allowed price to drop from the achieved high of $0.9486 at 11:50 to $0.9201 at 12:34. That began a long, extremely low/no-volume $0.92xx/$0.9351, with a couple small steps up in the lows, through 15:28. Then 15:29 began the EOD volatility kicked in and produced three steps up to close the day at $0.9495, up 4.95 cents from yesterday's close.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:38 opened the day with a 3,888 $0.90 buy and $0.9026 x 100, $0.90 x 9, and $0.9001 x 200. B/a at 9:31 was 10K:1K $0.9000/25. Then came 9:32's 5.8K $0.9005/00/01/00, 9:34's 200 $0.9023, 9:35's 200 $0.9025, 9:37's b/a 400:100 $0.9002/25, 9:41's 100 $0.9025, 9:42's 4.6K $0.9005 (4K)/06/26, 9:51's 600 $0.9025, 9:56's 421 $0.9024/5, 10:02's 700 $0.9025, 10:03's b/a 400:1.3K $0.9024/5. That began extremely low/no-volume (e.g. 12 minutes no trades) $0.9024/5. B/a at 10:20 300:2K $0.9024/5A, 10:32 400:2.1K $0.9024/5.
10:45's trade would have a major buy percentage effect (10:30 was 17.17% 17.6K, 10:45 50.96% 30.8K), as it was a high percentage of all prior volume, so I ended the period at the last prior trade at 10:38.
10:39-10:53, after six no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $0.9024/5 on 10:45's 13K $0.9024 (500)/5. The period ended on 10:53's 100 $0.9025.
10:46-11:50, after two no-trades minutes and 10:47's b/a at 10:47 600:600 $0.9024/5, started with a very low/no-volume $0.9024/5 on 10:48's 100 $0.9025 before beginning a strong rise on higher volume. This began with 10:55's 12.7K $0.9025/6->$0.9024/5 and 10:56's 7.1K $0.9100/$0.9080/73/30, leaving b/a at 1.3K:200 $0.9032/$0.91. Then came 11:03's b/a of 700:100 $0.9064/$0.91, 11:14's 300 $0.9105/$0.918, 11:17's b/a 900:349 $0.9120/80, and 11:25's ~1.8K $0.917/$0.927, 11:30's b/a 2.1K:4.9K $0.9163/$0.9270, 11:42's10.7K $0.9203/$0.93, 11:43's 200 $0.9306/$0.94. The period ended on 11:50's 5.3K $0.9323/$0.9486 (5K).
11:51-12:33, before beginning to sag, began a mostly low volume $0.9326/$0.945 sideways move that had 11:53's b/a 900:479 $0.9325/$0.9450. The sag began with 12:02's b/a of 1.4K:200 $0.9390/$0.9449 and then 12:04's traded 2.2K $0.9429/00/23/00/$0.9342/01, 12:17's b/a 1.2K:1.3K $0.9303/99, 12:21's traded 480 $0.9399/01, 12:28-:31's traded 13.4K $0.9306/05/11/05/07/06/00/49/25/$0.9349/00, and the period ended on 12:32-:33's traded 2.2K $0.9349/01/00/$0.9203/$0.9349/$0.9201. 12:33's b/a ended at 1K:300 $0.9201/$0.9350
12:34-15:28 began extremely low/no-volume $0.9246/$0.935 with 12:40's b/a at 600:600 $0.9205/$0.9350 and 12:42's 110 $0.935. B/a at 12:48 was 900:300 $0.9206/$0.9350, 13:03 1K:400 $0.9210/$0.9351, 13:17 1.2K:300 $0.9212/$0.9351, 13:32 1K:300 $0.9232/$0.9351, 13:47 800:400 $0.9234/$0.9351, 14:04 700:400 $0.9237/$0.9351, 14:17 1K:400 $0.9240/$0.9351, 14:32 700:600 $0.9243/$0.9351, 14:47 1K:300 $0.9246/$0.9351, 15:02 400:300 $0.9248/$0.9351, 15:18 500:1K $0.9254/$0.9350. The period ended on 15:28's 100 $0.9249.
15:29-16:00 began typical EOD volatility on 15:29's 3.3K $0.9349/$0.9256/$0.9350/42/51/50/51/52/97. B/a at 15:33 was 600:300 $0.9201/$0.9401. Through 15:46 trade was mostly low-volume $0.9351/$0.9401. 14:47-:48 did an aggregate 32.8K $0.9400/1/$0.92/$0.9401/$0.93/$0.9401/$0.92/$0.9401/2/$0.9450/$0.93/$0.9440/$0.9303/$0.9440/1/2/$0.9450/$0.9300/03. B/a at 15:48 was 2.3K:4.7K $0.9300/$0.9450. The period ended on 15:59's 1.8K $0.9300/75/00/$0.9450 and 16:00's 700 buy for $0.9495, up $0.0495 from yesterday's close.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 4 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 25,000, 11.61% of day's volume, with a $0.9374 VWAP. For the day's volume both the count and percentage of day's trade volume are very low. Moreover, for a bullish run up, which it seems was emulated today, these are laughable. However, the VWAP was above the day's $0.9251 so someone is getting convinced here.
If "they" can continue this it will eventually pull in the retailers, day and momo traders, etc. who might be afraid they are missing a big run up. As soon as some of the alert publications catch it we'll see a huge volume increase and price push higher, albeit very short-lived unless they can scare the shorts enough (not easily done) to produce a "short squeeze".
I just love it when the "west coasties" appear and decide to help their cause, don't you? Notice all the metrics subsequent to 10:53. Matisse could not have done a better job with the limited set of oils these painters apparently possess.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:38 17659 $0.9000 $0.9026 $15,904.12 $0.9006 8.20% 17.96% Incl 09:42 $0.9005 4,000
10:53 14400 $0.9024 $0.9025 $12,995.83 $0.9025 6.69% 49.34% Incl 10:45 $0.9025 5,000
11:50 65372 $0.9024 $0.9486 $60,070.83 $0.9189 30.37% 61.10% Incl 11:28 $0.9270 6,900 11:38 $0.9182 4,600
11:50 $0.9486 5,000
12:33 25068 $0.9201 $0.9450 $23,430.34 $0.9347 11.65% 57.52% Incl 12:31 $0.9349 5,000
15:28 27057 $0.9213 $0.9351 $25,194.77 $0.9312 12.57% 59.32%
16:00 63804 $0.9200 $0.9495 $59,793.70 $0.9371 29.64% 64.14% Incl 15:47 $0.9200 6,300 15:48 $0.9450 8,700
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Now that's what the start of a bullish run looks like - everything up including volume. The intra-day still smacks of manipulation but if it draws in the crowd and gains momentum no one cares how or why ... until after the fact.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 2.04% 2.04% 3.22% 5.50% 76.44%
Prior 1.74% 1.74% 2.36% 1.12% -3.10%
On my minimal chart the trade range had remained comfortably within the rising triangle's (lower right orange lines) adjusted boundaries. Today that changed as the high and close was above the ~$0.9414 horizontal resistance. It was on rising volume too. If we close above it again, especially on rising volume again, a break out is confirmed. It's a strong resistance though as the recent several attempts to move above it, most on rising volume, have failed to break out.
The high and close also penetrated the experimental 13-period's upper Bollinger limit. Only twice in the last 150 days have we seen this happen and maintain a rise of more than just a few days. Going back a year the results are the same sort - only a few times has a rise lasted more that a few days.
The limits have begun converging again. As mentioned several times recently, they were at points suggesting a move was near and yesterday I noted { ... That offers hope the coming movement is higher, although that would go against our history, fundamentals, and the shorters movement I'm expecting to appear. } Well, today is the first step in seeing if we can break the pattern or not.
I also said { With the continued declining volume as VWAP elevates a bit I think shorters are licking their chops. That makes me suspect we'll quickly see an increase in trade volume, reducing VWAP and increasing short percentage. }
Well, we got the increasing volume and the short percentage has begun increasing (see below), now sitting near the middle of my desired range. The VWAP though made the third consecutive day of increase. While those who are trying to move the price up operate unopposed by the shorters this will continue. If the shorters wait too long and the momo crowd piles in they will have lost the battle but may still win the war - the momo crowd is quite fickle.
On my one-year chart we got a high enough close to turn the 10-day SMA upward and the the 20-day SMA continued rising while the 50 and 200-day SMAs continued declining. If we hold this range the 20-day will continue rising eight (was four) more days and the 10-day will rise continuously and the 50 will drop another ~26 days and the 200 about 180ish days.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch flip-flopped, consistent with consolidation, going from marginal improvement in all but ADX-related to improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R, full stochastic, and ADX-related. Weakening occurred in momentum.
Today all but MFI (untrusted by me) improved, substantially in all but accumulation/distribution and ADX-related. RSI, momentum, Williams %R and full stochastic are above neutral and Williams %R is just below overbought while full stochastic is nearing it overbought but not too close yet. Another good day will likely get it there though as %K moves relatively rapidly.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.8734 and $0.9475 ($0.8675 and $0.9566 yesterday) resumed converging with a falling mid-point as the upper limit declines more quickly than the lower limit rises.
All in, ignoring the TFH thesis and manipulation, the conventional TA now has three days of rising range and two days of rising volume. The oscillators are going more cohesively positive now. If there's anyone in the market with an interest, the rises and associated signs are likely to catch the attention of the alert publications and the momo and swing traders should start coming in.
This would put me in the near-term bullish camp expecting a spike.
But I just can't shake the thought that the shorters are awaiting good volume on an unjustified rise to strike. Was today's small short percentage rise the beginning? I don't know.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction and the short percentage is in the middle of my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage is in the range of sustainable price appreciation for the third consecutive day.
The spread is wide, but not too wide for a move up produced by an odd day such as today's intra-day behavior was. In context I think it's a positive.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings, for the third consecutive day, improved to 13 negatives and 11 positives from 14 and 10 respectively. Change since 10/28 is $0.0149, 1.64%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.1218%, -0.4019, %-0.5046%, -0.7608%, -0.7208%, -0.6795%, -0.7820%, -0.5530%, -0.9605%, and -1.4049%.
All in these are the most consistently positive readings seen in a while and, further, they are now trending. These make me near-term bullish.
Bill
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