Tuesday, November 29, 2016 11:55:38 AM
Seems reasonable and well written to me as a layman with little bio knowledge.
"Here is the way I see it ...
Riley is competent .. at the same time .. he has absolutely no problem lying to retail .. much like a used car salesman .. in fact, I believe he absolutely knew that Trimesta was going to fail but scammed a market to get his secondary done at above $3 .. unfortunately for him, the market is not falling for that anymore .. so, I believe he is actively working with institutions (which by the way are making money on both sides of this trade, so they dont mind the financing since they made money on the short side) .. unfortunately retail gets diluted but fortunately, Riley's own personal gain is tied to the long side of this trade through options ...
with that said, we are in the land of wolves, competitors are cut-throat but so is management ... here are the scenarios in my opinion:
FOR SYN-004
Scenario 1 - SYN-004 p2b is sig for CDI, AAD and AR - best case scenario ...
In this case, share price has the potential to appreciate significantly, warrants MAY be exercised, even if dilution necessary again .. will be at higher share price ... most likely they will structure the phase 3 similarly and go for CDI again .. as they will only have to replicate .. the trial will likely only have to be similar size.
Scenario 2 - SYN-004 p2b misses sig for CDI, but is sig for AAD and AR - most likely scenario
In this case, on emotion, the stock will trade lower, but the drug still has chance to get to market. This will depend on influence of CDC and seeing how the FDA structures the phase 3. If they accept AAD and/or AR as primary endpoints, then the recently completed phase 2b has a chance to count as a pivotal still and the new phase 3 will not have to be big at all. Likely will have to dilute again as warrants likely will not be exercised (unless the moving of the goal post by the FDA causes a share pop).
Scenario 3 - SYN-004 p2b misses on all CDI, AAD but gets AR - unlikely considering IPSAT studies
Nonetheless, in this case, CDC will have to be involved heavily to help with FDA get drug to market. Not sure if a phase 3 will be required and if it is, how it will be structured. If only for this indication, then potentially each individual serves as their control and all data needed to see if AR is being prevented should be in the already collected fecal swabs.
Scenario 4 - SYN-004 p2b misses on all endpoints, primary, secondary and exploratory
Program has to be shut down. SYN valuation primarily dependent on SYN-010.
SYN-010
Scenario 1 - Interim shows improvement in BM and/or composite end point in all patients - best case scenario.
In this case, drug likely gets partnered on terms acceptable to SYN and share price appreciates - no more dilution necessary for this part of pipeline.
Scenario 2 - Interim shows improvement in only methane producing patients - both BM and composite endpoint.
In this case, it will again depend on how stubborn management is on what they accept as a good deal. If they dont accept a deal, then likely will need to dilute again to fund second half of p2b/3 (unless SYN-004 comes through in a big way and puts pressure on warrants to be exercised - the 4 year warrants almost have ZERO chance of being exercised next year).
Scenario 3 - Interim shows improvement in only methane producing patients - not in BM but only subjective part of score (much like the small phase 2)
Partnership unlikely, dilution likely (unless of course SYN 004 comes thru as above)."
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