Friday, November 25, 2016 1:07:59 PM
#1. “The Japanese Economy Will Collapse”
In the 1980’s, just about everyone thought Japan was positioned to unseat America as the world’s largest economy.
But Japan’s demographics told a different story.
[-chart]files.admin.sovereignsociety.com/images/japan.png[/chart]
According to this economist’s 1989 book, “Our Power to Predict,” Japan was simply nearing the top of their baby boom spending cycle… and they had created a massive real estate and stock market bubble in the process.
“ [Japan’s] demographic spending cycle is already peaking and that they will be facing the problem of an aging population, which means less productivity and higher social costs in the future.
I see a rude awakening for the Japanese, especially with the coming recession, which will strike a blow to their tight but very vulnerable structure where everything from the yen to capital markets are “rigged” to support their present strategies.
#2. "The Dot-Com Bubble Will Burst"
From 1995-2000, dot-com fever exploded tech stocks by 579%. Some were even predicting the internet would end recessions once and for all.
But this economist had been sounding the alarm in 1999 that internet stocks were in a bubble.
On February 1, 2000, warning that AOL and Yahoo! had already hit their peaks, he told readers to get out of tech stocks before it was too late.
“The leading internet stocks appear to be approaching a significant top that should be followed by a correction larger than in mid-1999. I don’t agree with many analysts who claim the overall market is in a mania, but the internets are! “
[-chart]files.admin.sovereignsociety.com/images/tech.png[/chart]
#3. "Real Estate Is In a Bubble"
In April, 2005 -- almost a year in advance of the housing market crash -- he made another dead-on-the-money prediction:
“The most important insight here is that home prices have gotten way ahead of inflation and quality trends, far more than any time in the last century. So, this is not just a bubble - it is the greatest bubble we have ever seen in housing prices.”
In his October 2007 newsletter, he warned his readers that housing would continue to slide:
“We have been going back and forth on when US home prices will slow in relation to the next likely crash in US stocks from late 2008 or late 2009 into late 2010.
Prices are likely to decline much more with the downturn and deflation trends…”
[-chart]files.admin.sovereignsociety.com/images/housing.png[/chart]
#4. Precious Metals Have Peaked
On April 25, 2011, he warned his readers to get out of gold and silver -- the exact day silver hit topped before eventually crashing to $13.8 / oz. on January 15, 2015.
“A move to $42 - $48 would pit silver against its last bubble highs on our 29 –30-Year Commodity Cycle in 1980. This is another reason to think that this is “the top” rather than an important intermediate top. Silver and gold look, at a minimum, like they may have a substantial correction ahead.”
[-chart]files.admin.sovereignsociety.com/images/precious%20metals.png[/chart]
Gold would soon hit its top a few months later in September of that year before eventually bottoming out at $1,050 on Dec 30, 2015.
#5. "Oil Is Headed For $32"
Gold wasn’t the only thing he was bearish on. He started forecasting in early 2013 that all commodities were entering into a long-term down trend.
On January 14th, 2015… he made another bold prediction.
“Falling commodity prices, especially oil, will continue to trigger more debt crises, like falling home prices did in the last one. The commodity plunge is already killing countries like Venezuela, Russia, Iran and Iraq.
The most likely scenario is a near-term rally back to the $64 to $76 range and then another crash down to as low as $32 where they bottom…”
[-chart]files.admin.sovereignsociety.com/images/oil.png[/chart]
And that’s exactly what happened. Oil climbed back above $60 per barrel in mid-2015 before bottoming out at $26.05 per barrel on February 11th, 2016.
http://pro.dentresearch.com/BNBCOMM3/LBNBSB45?h=true
In the 1980’s, just about everyone thought Japan was positioned to unseat America as the world’s largest economy.
But Japan’s demographics told a different story.
[-chart]files.admin.sovereignsociety.com/images/japan.png[/chart]
According to this economist’s 1989 book, “Our Power to Predict,” Japan was simply nearing the top of their baby boom spending cycle… and they had created a massive real estate and stock market bubble in the process.
“ [Japan’s] demographic spending cycle is already peaking and that they will be facing the problem of an aging population, which means less productivity and higher social costs in the future.
I see a rude awakening for the Japanese, especially with the coming recession, which will strike a blow to their tight but very vulnerable structure where everything from the yen to capital markets are “rigged” to support their present strategies.
#2. "The Dot-Com Bubble Will Burst"
From 1995-2000, dot-com fever exploded tech stocks by 579%. Some were even predicting the internet would end recessions once and for all.
But this economist had been sounding the alarm in 1999 that internet stocks were in a bubble.
On February 1, 2000, warning that AOL and Yahoo! had already hit their peaks, he told readers to get out of tech stocks before it was too late.
“The leading internet stocks appear to be approaching a significant top that should be followed by a correction larger than in mid-1999. I don’t agree with many analysts who claim the overall market is in a mania, but the internets are! “
[-chart]files.admin.sovereignsociety.com/images/tech.png[/chart]
#3. "Real Estate Is In a Bubble"
In April, 2005 -- almost a year in advance of the housing market crash -- he made another dead-on-the-money prediction:
“The most important insight here is that home prices have gotten way ahead of inflation and quality trends, far more than any time in the last century. So, this is not just a bubble - it is the greatest bubble we have ever seen in housing prices.”
In his October 2007 newsletter, he warned his readers that housing would continue to slide:
“We have been going back and forth on when US home prices will slow in relation to the next likely crash in US stocks from late 2008 or late 2009 into late 2010.
Prices are likely to decline much more with the downturn and deflation trends…”
[-chart]files.admin.sovereignsociety.com/images/housing.png[/chart]
#4. Precious Metals Have Peaked
On April 25, 2011, he warned his readers to get out of gold and silver -- the exact day silver hit topped before eventually crashing to $13.8 / oz. on January 15, 2015.
“A move to $42 - $48 would pit silver against its last bubble highs on our 29 –30-Year Commodity Cycle in 1980. This is another reason to think that this is “the top” rather than an important intermediate top. Silver and gold look, at a minimum, like they may have a substantial correction ahead.”
[-chart]files.admin.sovereignsociety.com/images/precious%20metals.png[/chart]
Gold would soon hit its top a few months later in September of that year before eventually bottoming out at $1,050 on Dec 30, 2015.
#5. "Oil Is Headed For $32"
Gold wasn’t the only thing he was bearish on. He started forecasting in early 2013 that all commodities were entering into a long-term down trend.
On January 14th, 2015… he made another bold prediction.
“Falling commodity prices, especially oil, will continue to trigger more debt crises, like falling home prices did in the last one. The commodity plunge is already killing countries like Venezuela, Russia, Iran and Iraq.
The most likely scenario is a near-term rally back to the $64 to $76 range and then another crash down to as low as $32 where they bottom…”
[-chart]files.admin.sovereignsociety.com/images/oil.png[/chart]
And that’s exactly what happened. Oil climbed back above $60 per barrel in mid-2015 before bottoming out at $26.05 per barrel on February 11th, 2016.
http://pro.dentresearch.com/BNBCOMM3/LBNBSB45?h=true
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