Thursday, November 24, 2016 5:23:18 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 11/23 2016 EOD
Everything in the conventional and unconventional TA suggests consolidation with increasing bearish bias near-term. Watching the intra-day behavior reinforces this take. My TFH believes there is a battle between warrnat holders trying to elevate price and shorters trying to suppress or depress it. From a purely technical risk.reward view I think the shorters have the stronger hand unless some really big help from $CPST itself appears.
The following occurred on extremely low/no-volume punctuated with some brief higher-volume minutes.
The day began normally with a open high, go higher and drop right away to hit the day's low at 10:12 on a 24.3K minute $0.9007/8->$0.8815. Then a climb back up to $0.92 was completed by 12:00 and the rest of the day was flattish between $0.90 and $0.92 for the rest of the day. There was no closing 16:00 trade and the day ended on 15:59's 100 $0.9190, +1.54% from yesterday's close. Note today's high was down -$0.0135, the low was down -$0.0235, and the close, which is all conventional TA cares about, was up $0.0149 on volume roughly 2/3rds more than yesterday's.
For me the tell will be VWAP movement though.
Take note of the short percentage comments below - very high and very infrequent range.
We did close below the the short-term triangle's (lower right orange lines) rising support, confirming a break down. Since it's on rising volume it suggests strengthening in the move.
We're still in consolidation, even very short-term, as our low was above the low set 11/16, the start of this latest short sideways move.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:10 opened the day with a 1,177 sell for $0.9050 & $0.9051 x 100 & $0.9050 x 100. Then came 9:32's b/a of 242:35 $0.9050/$0.9300 (offer backed by presented 600 $0.9399), 9:34's 242 $0.9050, 9:36's ~4.2K $0.9011->$0.9000, 9:38's 300 $0.9050->$0.8951, 9:40's b/a 1K:235 $0.8950/$0.9300, 9:43's 100 $0.9266, 9:44's b/a 1.2K:435 $0.9000/$0.9300, 9:49's b/a 200:5.3K $0.9201/$0.9300, 9:50's 1K $0.9200/5 (500 ea.), 9:53's b/a 2.7K:600 $0.9000/$0.9300, 9:57's b/a 2K:300 $0.9000/10.
Trade then began extremely low/no-volume $0.895/$0.9010 with falling highs. Volume was interrupted by 9:59's ~6.6K $0.895/$0.9008. B/a at 10:04 was 1K:500 $0.9000/5. The period ended on 10:10's 9.3K $0.895/$0.9002.
10:11-11:05, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.8910/85 (mostly $0.891x) on 10:12's 24.3K $0.9007/8->$0.8815. B/a at 10:21 was 3.8K 900 $0.8910/97, 10:39 300:400 $0.8914/89, 10:49 100:600 $0.8911/83. Volume was interrupted by 10:59's 10.1K $0.8910/86. B/a at 11:02 was 900:900 $0.8912/85. The period ended on 11:05's 210 $0.8985.
11:06-11:55, after two no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.9003/10, with rising highs, on 11:08's 1.5K $0.8950/85/15/53/50/90. B/a at 11:13 was 700:800 $0.8957/$0.9010, 11:20 800:700 $0.9002/10, 11:33 600:1K $0.9004/10, 11:48 300:1.1K $0.9003/10. The high moved to $0.9015 at 11:49. The period ended on 11:55's 1.2K $0.9007/15.
11:56-13:41, after one no-trades minute began extremely low/no-volume $0.9052/$0.92, with slowly rising lows until 13:05 when they began declining, on 11:56's ~3.9K $0.9015/08/16/$0.9186/$0.9089. B/a at 12:06 was 600:6.5K $0.9052/$0.92, 12:18 300:5.6K $0.9054/$0.92, 12:39 200:5.4K $0.9137:$0.92, 12:50 700:5.5K $0.9140/$0.92, 13:11 100:5.5K $0.9111,$0.92, 13:19 300:5.7K $0.9116/$0.92. Volume was interrupted by 13:24's 9.1K $0.9118/$0.92. B/a at 13:33 was 1.1K:11.9K $0.9125/$0.92 (bots playing with the bid qtys). The period ended on 13:41's 1.8K $0.9116/35.
13:42-14:27 began $0.9000/41 through 13:56 on 13:42-:43's ~3.3K $0.9117->$0.9051/3->$0.9051/2->$0.9050->$0.9001/2. B/a at 13:53 was 100:400 $0.9002/50. 13:57's 2.6K $0.9051/07/52/55/$0.9100/18 and 14:00's 300 $0.9162 began extremely low/no-volume $0.9117/$0.92. B/a at 14:08 was 600:10.5K $0.9120/$0.9200, 14:18 300:10.1K $0.9120/$0.9200. The period ended on 14:27's 100 $0.9199.
14:28-15:59 had b/a at 14:33 of 200:10.2K $0.9199/$0.92. After 16 no-trades minutes trade began very low/no-volume $0.9003/$0.9190, with rising lows, on 14:44's 635 $0.9199->$0.9127->$0.9027. B/a at 14:47 was 1.5K:10.1K $0.9002/$0.9002, 15:02 700:1.9K $0.9004/$0.9199, 15:17 700:1.4K $0.9009/$0.9190, 15:32 1.2K:300 $0.9009/$0.9190, 15:46 800:1.2K $0.9014/$0.9190. The period and day ended on 15:59's 100 $0.9190. Today there was no closing MM trade at 16:00.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 5 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 47,700, 38.69% of day's volume, with a $0.9017 VWAP, slightly below the day's $0.9044, thanks to most being below the day's VWAP. The count of larger trades is a bit low but the percentage of day's trade was pushed up to a quite high percentage by one "larger larger trade", ~23K for $0.9008. These trades are likely the majority of the day's -1.35% VWAP decline.
On my minimal chart yesterday I said I thought the big volume drop might have been due to larger players starting the holidays early. I thought that allowed the high to match the prior high as we saw the usual manipulation. Volume is up ~63% today, but still low, so I think that still applies as the high was down only ~1.4%.
Yesterday, noting the close below the very short-term rising triangle's (lower right orange lines) support, I said { If we close below it again tomorrow the break down is confirmed, especially if it's on rising volume. I don't expect much volume due to the holiday season. }
Well, we closed below again and it is on rising volume. The volume is still quite low though.
Our high was below the rising leg of the triangle.
Conventional TA says confirming a break below on rising volume should result in a leg down to a prior support/resistance point. There's a pause point, not really a known support, at 11/1's $0.83 but the real first potential apparent support would be 11/3's $0.75.
Other potential behaviors include a reversion to the mean, $0.86-$0.87, of the most recent up-leg and a Fibonacci 38.2% or 61.8% re-trace of the $0.75-$0.98 range.
The fast and slow close-based EMAs both continued declining.
On my one-year chart, the 10-day SMA continued to rise for the eighth day while the remaining SMAs continued falling. If we remain at this level, the 10-day will flatten a few days thanks to today's higher close, the 20-day will fall again three more days, and the 50-day would continue falling another 31 days or so.
The ten day SMA is above the 20-day for the third consecutive day.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had marginal weakening in every oscillator but for momentum, which rose.
Today marginal improvement was seen in RSI, momentum, and Williams %R. RSI is below neutral and the latter two are above neutral. Weakening was seen in the rest and they are below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.8375 and $0.9805 ($0.8082 and $0.9915 yesterday) and are still converging with a rising mid-point due to the lower limit rising faster than the upper limit declines. Today's weakness may be the start of the larger move I said we should see begin in a few days. Today's move wasn't large though.
All in, the consolidation with increased bearishness I laid out a couple days back seems to be developing. However ...
Considering my belief that the warrant holders are trying to push price up even as I believe shorters are trying to push it lower (see today's short commentary), I have no strong belief of what will happen based on this traditional TA. Based on history I would tend to think shorters have the upper hand here.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction but this doesn't result in the normal "that's good". The short percentage is way too high (see comments above) and the buy percentage is in the area that says we should have seen something higher today. Instead we have only volume higher while the high, low and VWAP are lower. This is an effect, I believe, of the manipulation attempts we've been seeing, where someone tries to do low-volume buys to push price upward, combined with shorters, I think, trying to push it lower. Shorters should have the upper hand because their risk profile is lower than that of those who might try and push price upward.
The spread widened and was produced by an open in the middle and small sag, an early push up and fall to the day's low by 10:12's high volume, ~24K. Then a recovery to just above the mid-point was completed by ~11:58 and trade was somewhat flattish the rest of the day. Believing we've started another leg down, the spread indicates more near-term weakness is most likely. This assessment is strengthened by the short and buy percentages.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings, after holding steady for six days at 14 negatives and 10 positives, deteriorated to 15 and nine respectively. Change since 10/20 is -$0.2072, -18.64%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.7820%, -0.5530%, -0.9605%, -1.4049%, -1.3868%, -1.4232%, -1.3956%, -1.4743%, -1.7433%, and -1.8222%. With a +4.15% change dropping out tomorrow we can expect the rolling averages to decline again.
All in I think the consolidation with a now stronger bearish bias continues.
Bill
Everything in the conventional and unconventional TA suggests consolidation with increasing bearish bias near-term. Watching the intra-day behavior reinforces this take. My TFH believes there is a battle between warrnat holders trying to elevate price and shorters trying to suppress or depress it. From a purely technical risk.reward view I think the shorters have the stronger hand unless some really big help from $CPST itself appears.
The following occurred on extremely low/no-volume punctuated with some brief higher-volume minutes.
The day began normally with a open high, go higher and drop right away to hit the day's low at 10:12 on a 24.3K minute $0.9007/8->$0.8815. Then a climb back up to $0.92 was completed by 12:00 and the rest of the day was flattish between $0.90 and $0.92 for the rest of the day. There was no closing 16:00 trade and the day ended on 15:59's 100 $0.9190, +1.54% from yesterday's close. Note today's high was down -$0.0135, the low was down -$0.0235, and the close, which is all conventional TA cares about, was up $0.0149 on volume roughly 2/3rds more than yesterday's.
For me the tell will be VWAP movement though.
Take note of the short percentage comments below - very high and very infrequent range.
We did close below the the short-term triangle's (lower right orange lines) rising support, confirming a break down. Since it's on rising volume it suggests strengthening in the move.
We're still in consolidation, even very short-term, as our low was above the low set 11/16, the start of this latest short sideways move.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:10 opened the day with a 1,177 sell for $0.9050 & $0.9051 x 100 & $0.9050 x 100. Then came 9:32's b/a of 242:35 $0.9050/$0.9300 (offer backed by presented 600 $0.9399), 9:34's 242 $0.9050, 9:36's ~4.2K $0.9011->$0.9000, 9:38's 300 $0.9050->$0.8951, 9:40's b/a 1K:235 $0.8950/$0.9300, 9:43's 100 $0.9266, 9:44's b/a 1.2K:435 $0.9000/$0.9300, 9:49's b/a 200:5.3K $0.9201/$0.9300, 9:50's 1K $0.9200/5 (500 ea.), 9:53's b/a 2.7K:600 $0.9000/$0.9300, 9:57's b/a 2K:300 $0.9000/10.
Trade then began extremely low/no-volume $0.895/$0.9010 with falling highs. Volume was interrupted by 9:59's ~6.6K $0.895/$0.9008. B/a at 10:04 was 1K:500 $0.9000/5. The period ended on 10:10's 9.3K $0.895/$0.9002.
10:11-11:05, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.8910/85 (mostly $0.891x) on 10:12's 24.3K $0.9007/8->$0.8815. B/a at 10:21 was 3.8K 900 $0.8910/97, 10:39 300:400 $0.8914/89, 10:49 100:600 $0.8911/83. Volume was interrupted by 10:59's 10.1K $0.8910/86. B/a at 11:02 was 900:900 $0.8912/85. The period ended on 11:05's 210 $0.8985.
11:06-11:55, after two no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.9003/10, with rising highs, on 11:08's 1.5K $0.8950/85/15/53/50/90. B/a at 11:13 was 700:800 $0.8957/$0.9010, 11:20 800:700 $0.9002/10, 11:33 600:1K $0.9004/10, 11:48 300:1.1K $0.9003/10. The high moved to $0.9015 at 11:49. The period ended on 11:55's 1.2K $0.9007/15.
11:56-13:41, after one no-trades minute began extremely low/no-volume $0.9052/$0.92, with slowly rising lows until 13:05 when they began declining, on 11:56's ~3.9K $0.9015/08/16/$0.9186/$0.9089. B/a at 12:06 was 600:6.5K $0.9052/$0.92, 12:18 300:5.6K $0.9054/$0.92, 12:39 200:5.4K $0.9137:$0.92, 12:50 700:5.5K $0.9140/$0.92, 13:11 100:5.5K $0.9111,$0.92, 13:19 300:5.7K $0.9116/$0.92. Volume was interrupted by 13:24's 9.1K $0.9118/$0.92. B/a at 13:33 was 1.1K:11.9K $0.9125/$0.92 (bots playing with the bid qtys). The period ended on 13:41's 1.8K $0.9116/35.
13:42-14:27 began $0.9000/41 through 13:56 on 13:42-:43's ~3.3K $0.9117->$0.9051/3->$0.9051/2->$0.9050->$0.9001/2. B/a at 13:53 was 100:400 $0.9002/50. 13:57's 2.6K $0.9051/07/52/55/$0.9100/18 and 14:00's 300 $0.9162 began extremely low/no-volume $0.9117/$0.92. B/a at 14:08 was 600:10.5K $0.9120/$0.9200, 14:18 300:10.1K $0.9120/$0.9200. The period ended on 14:27's 100 $0.9199.
14:28-15:59 had b/a at 14:33 of 200:10.2K $0.9199/$0.92. After 16 no-trades minutes trade began very low/no-volume $0.9003/$0.9190, with rising lows, on 14:44's 635 $0.9199->$0.9127->$0.9027. B/a at 14:47 was 1.5K:10.1K $0.9002/$0.9002, 15:02 700:1.9K $0.9004/$0.9199, 15:17 700:1.4K $0.9009/$0.9190, 15:32 1.2K:300 $0.9009/$0.9190, 15:46 800:1.2K $0.9014/$0.9190. The period and day ended on 15:59's 100 $0.9190. Today there was no closing MM trade at 16:00.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 5 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 47,700, 38.69% of day's volume, with a $0.9017 VWAP, slightly below the day's $0.9044, thanks to most being below the day's VWAP. The count of larger trades is a bit low but the percentage of day's trade was pushed up to a quite high percentage by one "larger larger trade", ~23K for $0.9008. These trades are likely the majority of the day's -1.35% VWAP decline.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:10 25445 $0.8950 $0.9265 $22,930.67 $0.9012 20.64% 55.83% Incl 10:10 $0.9002 8,000
11:05 41210 $0.8815 $0.9008 $37,003.37 $0.8979 33.42% 67.34% Incl 10:12 $0.9008 23,500 10:21 $0.8910 4,500
10:59 $0.8985 6,200
11:55 10644 $0.8915 $0.9015 $9,581.75 $0.9002 8.63% 67.07%
13:41 23425 $0.9008 $0.9200 $21,477.83 $0.9169 19.00% 68.55% Incl 13:24 $0.9200 5,500
14:27 8451 $0.9000 $0.9200 $7,687.60 $0.9097 6.85% 65.62%
15:59 12410 $0.9000 $0.9199 $11,281.00 $0.9090 10.07% 63.24%
Today's low movement puts it back near 11/16's $0.8753 and the high back near 11/11's $0.92. The nearest recent equivalent VWAP is 10/31's $0.9010.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -3.62% -2.60% -1.44% 1.54% 62.58%
Prior -0.11% 0.56% 0.00% -0.55% -61.06%
On my minimal chart yesterday I said I thought the big volume drop might have been due to larger players starting the holidays early. I thought that allowed the high to match the prior high as we saw the usual manipulation. Volume is up ~63% today, but still low, so I think that still applies as the high was down only ~1.4%.
Yesterday, noting the close below the very short-term rising triangle's (lower right orange lines) support, I said { If we close below it again tomorrow the break down is confirmed, especially if it's on rising volume. I don't expect much volume due to the holiday season. }
Well, we closed below again and it is on rising volume. The volume is still quite low though.
Our high was below the rising leg of the triangle.
Conventional TA says confirming a break below on rising volume should result in a leg down to a prior support/resistance point. There's a pause point, not really a known support, at 11/1's $0.83 but the real first potential apparent support would be 11/3's $0.75.
Other potential behaviors include a reversion to the mean, $0.86-$0.87, of the most recent up-leg and a Fibonacci 38.2% or 61.8% re-trace of the $0.75-$0.98 range.
The fast and slow close-based EMAs both continued declining.
On my one-year chart, the 10-day SMA continued to rise for the eighth day while the remaining SMAs continued falling. If we remain at this level, the 10-day will flatten a few days thanks to today's higher close, the 20-day will fall again three more days, and the 50-day would continue falling another 31 days or so.
The ten day SMA is above the 20-day for the third consecutive day.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had marginal weakening in every oscillator but for momentum, which rose.
Today marginal improvement was seen in RSI, momentum, and Williams %R. RSI is below neutral and the latter two are above neutral. Weakening was seen in the rest and they are below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.8375 and $0.9805 ($0.8082 and $0.9915 yesterday) and are still converging with a rising mid-point due to the lower limit rising faster than the upper limit declines. Today's weakness may be the start of the larger move I said we should see begin in a few days. Today's move wasn't large though.
All in, the consolidation with increased bearishness I laid out a couple days back seems to be developing. However ...
Considering my belief that the warrant holders are trying to push price up even as I believe shorters are trying to push it lower (see today's short commentary), I have no strong belief of what will happen based on this traditional TA. Based on history I would tend to think shorters have the upper hand here.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction but this doesn't result in the normal "that's good". The short percentage is way too high (see comments above) and the buy percentage is in the area that says we should have seen something higher today. Instead we have only volume higher while the high, low and VWAP are lower. This is an effect, I believe, of the manipulation attempts we've been seeing, where someone tries to do low-volume buys to push price upward, combined with shorters, I think, trying to push it lower. Shorters should have the upper hand because their risk profile is lower than that of those who might try and push price upward.
The spread widened and was produced by an open in the middle and small sag, an early push up and fall to the day's low by 10:12's high volume, ~24K. Then a recovery to just above the mid-point was completed by ~11:58 and trade was somewhat flattish the rest of the day. Believing we've started another leg down, the spread indicates more near-term weakness is most likely. This assessment is strengthened by the short and buy percentages.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings, after holding steady for six days at 14 negatives and 10 positives, deteriorated to 15 and nine respectively. Change since 10/20 is -$0.2072, -18.64%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.7820%, -0.5530%, -0.9605%, -1.4049%, -1.3868%, -1.4232%, -1.3956%, -1.4743%, -1.7433%, and -1.8222%. With a +4.15% change dropping out tomorrow we can expect the rolling averages to decline again.
All in I think the consolidation with a now stronger bearish bias continues.
Bill
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