Tuesday, November 22, 2016 11:26:01 AM
I have a question about the Series 6 and your comment that you think it is possible to ramp in late 2017 / early 2018. You had made an earlier post in September about rumors on the series 6 panel and those turned out to be true. What makes you say that you think it is a 12 month effort to get the new lines up and running? (not necessarily with the 420W output they expect for the 2nd have of 2018).
In the conference call for 2017 guidance Mark W. indicated that they had some cushion in their stated schedule to allow for potential vendor delays in meeting commitments. I believe FSLR Management has a tendency to be conservative on guidance and therefore it seems reasonable they would put in a cushion to allow themselves more time for things to stabilize on the larger modules. A big part of the current selloff is just "product uncertainty" around the fact that it will be ~ 18 months before they are producing series 6 in volume. If they can produce an ~ 18% efficient panel at 40% below their current cost structure that is going to be a heck of a popular product in 2018 and 2019 and beyond.
In the conference call Widmar also mentioned they would take the S6 panels that were processed on the front end and then cut them to S4 size for finishing on the back end so they could get earlier performance results from panels in the field. Do you have any ideas as to when they might be able to start doing that? From a technical risk perspective I think people are most concerned about the deposition and quality for the larger sheets of glass. The back end finishing processes seem much lower risk (my opinion). I would love to buy more shares and I'm waiting for additional selloff in the share price. However I also want to reduce my exposure to "execution risk" for this transition.
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