Thursday, November 17, 2016 9:54:43 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 11/16 2016 EOD
Everything considered my best guess is continued consolidation. We have conflicting signals on essentially flat volume with the conventional TA suggesting mild bearish behavior and my unconventional still suggesting mild bullish behavior. Adding in a second day of open high and plummet, but this time with recovery above the mid-point of the drop, and odd intra-day trading and b/a behavior, I suspect price was supported by MMs being short-term long from yesterday's attractive covering buy opportunities. If that's the case, price support from that quarter will wane tomorrow and.or the next day and I think we see weakening.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:56 opened the day with a 1,164 sell for $0.9153 & 200 more for $0.9250. Then came 9:31's 100 $0.95, 9:33's 1.6K $0.9163/72, 9:34's 200 $0.9331/$0.9449, 9:35's b/a 1K:1.1K $0.9163/$0.9499, 9:36's 200 $0.9499, 9:40's 200 $0.9499, 9:41's 3.4K $0.93, 9:42's 1K $0.94, 9:43's 600 $0.9386->$0.9250, 9:44's 220 $0.926, 9:47's 100 $0.93, 9:49's 400 $0.93, 9:50's 2.9K $0.9349->$0.93->$0.9295, 9:51's 400 $0.9295/90/85/80, 9:52's 3.4K $0.9270/60/07/51/$0.9200/$0.9163/$0.9054. The period ended on 9:56's 42.1K $0.9198->$0.9000/10/01/05/00/$0.8995/25/$0.9199/$0.89/$0.8763.
09:57-10:56, after a no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.8801/$0.9194 with rising lows, on 9:58's 100 $0.9199, 9:59's 607 $0.9190-$0.8801, 10:02's 100 $0.9194. B/a at 10:09 was 3.6K:200 $0.89/$0.9192. By 10:21 range was narrowed to $0.8985/$0.9097. B/a at 10:22 was 3.2K:200 $0.89/$0.9097. Price and volume were interrupted by 10:28's 22K $0.89/$0.9096. B/a at 10:40 was 27.2K:500 $0.9120/60, 10:51 26.2K:400 $0.9120/59. The period ended on 10:56's 600 $0.9150->$0.9122.
10:57-11:17, after six no-trades minutes, began one of our recently-typical extremely low/no-volume pushes upward on 11:02's $0.9159/60/61/62/$0.9200. B/a at 11:04 was 200:1.8K $0.92/$0.9350. 11:08's 1.2K hit $0.9214/$0.9349. B/a at 11:14 was 1K:1.6K $0.92/$0.9350. Volume was interrupted by 11:15's 5.2K $0.92/$0.9322 (another step up). The period ended on 11:17's 100 $0.935.
11:18-14:02, after three no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.9200/$0.9350 on 11:21's 100 $0.9349. B/a at 11:33 was 1.1K:500 $0.92/$0.9349, 11:44 1.1K:1.6K $0.9200/$0.9350, 11:51 1.3K:500 $0.9200/$0.9349, 12:05 1.3K:700 $0.92/$0.9349.
Range narrowed to $0.9200/98 at 12:19. B/a at 12:22 was 600:1.9K $0.92/$0.9299, 12:35 600:4K $0.9200/98, 12:52 400:3.7K $0.9200/97, 12:57 500:3.7K $0.9200/94.
Range narrowed again to $0.9200/69 at 13:03. B/a at 13:04 was 200:2.1K $0.9200/69 (note how offers are slowly descending in the absence of any volume and upward pressure, 13:11 1.1K:800 $0.9200/49 ( after all this time, someone decides to force any buyers to enter a higher bid to get at the front of the queue - so far obviously no buyers of their own volition based on trade volume - likely MMs scalping each other - this could be an MM that naked shorted at higher prices now ready to cover though), 13:22 10.2K:200 $0.9200/38, 13:34 9.4K:1.8K $0.9200/33, 13:41 9.4K:600 $0.9200/30.
Range was down to $0.9200/15. B/a at 13:48 9.2K:1.5K $0.9200/26. The period ended on 14:02's 200 $0.9228.
14:03-??:?? went right back to extremely low/medium-volume $0.92/$0.9350 on 14:03's ~10K $0.9226/27/35/36/39/50/$0.9300/50/$0.9203/$0.9350/$0.9200/3/$0.9349. B/a at 14:08 was 6.7K:2.7K $0.92/$0.9350, 14:24 11.4K:1.8K $0.92/$0.9350, 15:0311.5K:400 $0.92/$0/9350, 15:33 11.5K:3.4K $0.9200/99 (asks begin dropping into late-day trading), 15:39 11.1K:4.8K $0.9200/99, 15:48 11.2K:1.9K $0.9200/98, 15:57 100:1.5K $0.9249/97. The period and day ended on 15:59's 9.1K $0.9200/97->$0.9200/1->$0.9200/97->$0.9200/1 ... and closed on $0.9249 x 100 because there was no closing MM trade.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 13 larger trades (>=5K & 5 4K+) totaling 102,314, 51.42% of day's volume, with a $0.9143 VWAP. The count is quite high for the volume and the percentage of days is really high, thanks to two "larger larger trades" totaling 50K. It's worth noting these two trades were done in the period with the lowest VWAPs and buy percentages. My TFH whispers that at least one of these was sold to one or more MMs (or a broker, in which case short percentage below should be very low (I haven't peeked yet - honest!) who then moved the market up and sold into the market, likely over those two periods encompassing ~5 hours of the market where the MM would make the most profit. This could explain some of the odd movements in price and b/a, as noted above.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart the big deal, again, is the action around the very short-term rising triangle (lower right orange lines). Price penetrated the rising support today but we closed above and within the triangle. Tomorrow, if we don't adjust the rising support (after all, it was very short-term and following action may warrant adjustment) the price will be above, at, or below the apex. Depending on what's observed in volume and intra-day action an adjustment may be warranted and a determination of a break may or may not be warranted. All this assumes no catalyst PR.
We had a lower open, low, high and volume but a higher close (artificially induced?). Note above the volume was off only 2.4% so we more properly ought to see it as flat. I would see this as suggesting neither strength nor weakness in the move low (excluding the close but looking at the other items mentioned and the VWAP below, down ~1.5%).
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits continued converging, but at a slower rate as the upper limit is just starting flattening while the lower limit continues the turn upward. This gives a slightly rising mid-point.
Unmentioned for a while, the fast and slow close-based EMAs have been essentially flat and at the same level for three days now.
In aggregate all this suggests what I'm tired of saying - near-term consolidation. The modifier ATM would be "with a bearish bias".
On my one-year chart, the 10-day SMA continued to rise for the third day while the remaining SMAs continued falling. If we remain at this level, the 10-day will continue rising for at least four days (yesterday was 9 days), the 20-day will fall seven more days, and the 50-day would continue falling another 37 days or so.
The oscillators I watch yesterday had only momentum and MFI (untrusted by me) improved. All others weakened and Williams %R and full stochastic exited overbought. Momentum, Williams %R and full stochastic were still above neutral, with all others below.
Today improvement occurred only in RSI and Williams %R (just below overbought) and weakening occurred in MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, full stochastic (exited overbought), and ADX-related.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7651 and $0.9859 ($0.9871 and $0.7647 yesterday) saw the mid-point stop falling with the lower limit continuing to rise and the upper limit falling more slowly.
All in I can't see much more than consolidation continuing but with a mild weakening bias.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved again had both move in the same direction and the short percentage came back into the low end of my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage made it into the area where short-term, but not indicated sustainable, appreciation is possible.
The spread narrowed slightly - let's call it flat - and was produced by the typical open high and plummet followed by a recovery to go flattish for the rest of the day. The intra-day behavior was similar to recent days with oddities in the b/a behavior and trading suggesting price was being supported by MMs, who may have gotten short-term long due to the prior day's big plunge and little recovery offering attractive covering buy opportunities. Since today didn't have that profile we might expect that source of price support to dissipate tomorrow or the next day.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held, for the second day, at 14 negatives and 10 positives. Change since 10/13 is -$0.4142, -31.12%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -1.4232%, -1.3956%, -1.4743%, -1.7433%, -1.8222%, -1.7635%, -1.8877%, -1.8884%, 1.9605%, and -2.1754%.
There's some hope as those rolling averages have started a trend of less weakening and more strengthening.
All in, these support continued consolidation but with a mild bullish bias for the moment.
Bill
Everything considered my best guess is continued consolidation. We have conflicting signals on essentially flat volume with the conventional TA suggesting mild bearish behavior and my unconventional still suggesting mild bullish behavior. Adding in a second day of open high and plummet, but this time with recovery above the mid-point of the drop, and odd intra-day trading and b/a behavior, I suspect price was supported by MMs being short-term long from yesterday's attractive covering buy opportunities. If that's the case, price support from that quarter will wane tomorrow and.or the next day and I think we see weakening.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:56 opened the day with a 1,164 sell for $0.9153 & 200 more for $0.9250. Then came 9:31's 100 $0.95, 9:33's 1.6K $0.9163/72, 9:34's 200 $0.9331/$0.9449, 9:35's b/a 1K:1.1K $0.9163/$0.9499, 9:36's 200 $0.9499, 9:40's 200 $0.9499, 9:41's 3.4K $0.93, 9:42's 1K $0.94, 9:43's 600 $0.9386->$0.9250, 9:44's 220 $0.926, 9:47's 100 $0.93, 9:49's 400 $0.93, 9:50's 2.9K $0.9349->$0.93->$0.9295, 9:51's 400 $0.9295/90/85/80, 9:52's 3.4K $0.9270/60/07/51/$0.9200/$0.9163/$0.9054. The period ended on 9:56's 42.1K $0.9198->$0.9000/10/01/05/00/$0.8995/25/$0.9199/$0.89/$0.8763.
09:57-10:56, after a no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.8801/$0.9194 with rising lows, on 9:58's 100 $0.9199, 9:59's 607 $0.9190-$0.8801, 10:02's 100 $0.9194. B/a at 10:09 was 3.6K:200 $0.89/$0.9192. By 10:21 range was narrowed to $0.8985/$0.9097. B/a at 10:22 was 3.2K:200 $0.89/$0.9097. Price and volume were interrupted by 10:28's 22K $0.89/$0.9096. B/a at 10:40 was 27.2K:500 $0.9120/60, 10:51 26.2K:400 $0.9120/59. The period ended on 10:56's 600 $0.9150->$0.9122.
10:57-11:17, after six no-trades minutes, began one of our recently-typical extremely low/no-volume pushes upward on 11:02's $0.9159/60/61/62/$0.9200. B/a at 11:04 was 200:1.8K $0.92/$0.9350. 11:08's 1.2K hit $0.9214/$0.9349. B/a at 11:14 was 1K:1.6K $0.92/$0.9350. Volume was interrupted by 11:15's 5.2K $0.92/$0.9322 (another step up). The period ended on 11:17's 100 $0.935.
11:18-14:02, after three no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.9200/$0.9350 on 11:21's 100 $0.9349. B/a at 11:33 was 1.1K:500 $0.92/$0.9349, 11:44 1.1K:1.6K $0.9200/$0.9350, 11:51 1.3K:500 $0.9200/$0.9349, 12:05 1.3K:700 $0.92/$0.9349.
Range narrowed to $0.9200/98 at 12:19. B/a at 12:22 was 600:1.9K $0.92/$0.9299, 12:35 600:4K $0.9200/98, 12:52 400:3.7K $0.9200/97, 12:57 500:3.7K $0.9200/94.
Range narrowed again to $0.9200/69 at 13:03. B/a at 13:04 was 200:2.1K $0.9200/69 (note how offers are slowly descending in the absence of any volume and upward pressure, 13:11 1.1K:800 $0.9200/49 ( after all this time, someone decides to force any buyers to enter a higher bid to get at the front of the queue - so far obviously no buyers of their own volition based on trade volume - likely MMs scalping each other - this could be an MM that naked shorted at higher prices now ready to cover though), 13:22 10.2K:200 $0.9200/38, 13:34 9.4K:1.8K $0.9200/33, 13:41 9.4K:600 $0.9200/30.
Range was down to $0.9200/15. B/a at 13:48 9.2K:1.5K $0.9200/26. The period ended on 14:02's 200 $0.9228.
14:03-??:?? went right back to extremely low/medium-volume $0.92/$0.9350 on 14:03's ~10K $0.9226/27/35/36/39/50/$0.9300/50/$0.9203/$0.9350/$0.9200/3/$0.9349. B/a at 14:08 was 6.7K:2.7K $0.92/$0.9350, 14:24 11.4K:1.8K $0.92/$0.9350, 15:0311.5K:400 $0.92/$0/9350, 15:33 11.5K:3.4K $0.9200/99 (asks begin dropping into late-day trading), 15:39 11.1K:4.8K $0.9200/99, 15:48 11.2K:1.9K $0.9200/98, 15:57 100:1.5K $0.9249/97. The period and day ended on 15:59's 9.1K $0.9200/97->$0.9200/1->$0.9200/97->$0.9200/1 ... and closed on $0.9249 x 100 because there was no closing MM trade.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 13 larger trades (>=5K & 5 4K+) totaling 102,314, 51.42% of day's volume, with a $0.9143 VWAP. The count is quite high for the volume and the percentage of days is really high, thanks to two "larger larger trades" totaling 50K. It's worth noting these two trades were done in the period with the lowest VWAPs and buy percentages. My TFH whispers that at least one of these was sold to one or more MMs (or a broker, in which case short percentage below should be very low (I haven't peeked yet - honest!) who then moved the market up and sold into the market, likely over those two periods encompassing ~5 hours of the market where the MM would make the most profit. This could explain some of the odd movements in price and b/a, as noted above.
What in interesting split: ~50% of volume at the two low VWAPs and buy percentages and ~50% at the two high VWAPs and higher buy percentages. Sort of lends some credence to my TFH whispers.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:56 58205 $0.8753 $0.9500 $52,829.50 $0.9076 29.25% 13.97% Incl 09:56 $0.9000 30,014
10:56 40717 $0.8801 $0.9199 $36,935.30 $0.9071 20.46% 35.34% Incl 10:28 $0.9096 20,000 10:43 $0.9121 4,400
11:17 7789 $0.9159 $0.9350 $7,231.68 $0.9284 3.91% 38.49% Incl 11:15 $0.9322 5,000
14:02 45055 $0.9200 $0.9350 $41,622.15 $0.9238 22.64% 45.00% Incl 12:18 $0.9247 4,901 13:03 $0.9269 5,000
13:16 $0.9210 5,000 13:31 $0.9235 5,000
13:55 $0.9227 4,000 $0.9235 4,000
15:59 45480 $0.9200 $0.9351 $42,161.80 $0.9270 22.86% 48.87% Incl 14:08 $0.9312 4,999 15:36 $0.9228 5,000
15:46 $0.9252 5,000
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Other than the close, which was, I think, a natural result of the price support suggested by the odd trading and b/a movements noted above, this stuff looks nasty, but for the reducing volume. Normally this would suggest no strength in the move lower. In today's case though I have to doubt that. The intra-day behavior was just too weird and was too easily accomplished by whomever was behind it. Once that entity meets their goals the price support evident today will be proven to be only dissipated vapor, likely tomorrow.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -5.64% -2.74% -3.05% 1.09% -2.40%
Prior 2.65% -1.10% -0.01% -5.68% -46.80%
On my minimal chart the big deal, again, is the action around the very short-term rising triangle (lower right orange lines). Price penetrated the rising support today but we closed above and within the triangle. Tomorrow, if we don't adjust the rising support (after all, it was very short-term and following action may warrant adjustment) the price will be above, at, or below the apex. Depending on what's observed in volume and intra-day action an adjustment may be warranted and a determination of a break may or may not be warranted. All this assumes no catalyst PR.
We had a lower open, low, high and volume but a higher close (artificially induced?). Note above the volume was off only 2.4% so we more properly ought to see it as flat. I would see this as suggesting neither strength nor weakness in the move low (excluding the close but looking at the other items mentioned and the VWAP below, down ~1.5%).
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits continued converging, but at a slower rate as the upper limit is just starting flattening while the lower limit continues the turn upward. This gives a slightly rising mid-point.
Unmentioned for a while, the fast and slow close-based EMAs have been essentially flat and at the same level for three days now.
In aggregate all this suggests what I'm tired of saying - near-term consolidation. The modifier ATM would be "with a bearish bias".
On my one-year chart, the 10-day SMA continued to rise for the third day while the remaining SMAs continued falling. If we remain at this level, the 10-day will continue rising for at least four days (yesterday was 9 days), the 20-day will fall seven more days, and the 50-day would continue falling another 37 days or so.
The oscillators I watch yesterday had only momentum and MFI (untrusted by me) improved. All others weakened and Williams %R and full stochastic exited overbought. Momentum, Williams %R and full stochastic were still above neutral, with all others below.
Today improvement occurred only in RSI and Williams %R (just below overbought) and weakening occurred in MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, full stochastic (exited overbought), and ADX-related.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7651 and $0.9859 ($0.9871 and $0.7647 yesterday) saw the mid-point stop falling with the lower limit continuing to rise and the upper limit falling more slowly.
All in I can't see much more than consolidation continuing but with a mild weakening bias.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved again had both move in the same direction and the short percentage came back into the low end of my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage made it into the area where short-term, but not indicated sustainable, appreciation is possible.
The spread narrowed slightly - let's call it flat - and was produced by the typical open high and plummet followed by a recovery to go flattish for the rest of the day. The intra-day behavior was similar to recent days with oddities in the b/a behavior and trading suggesting price was being supported by MMs, who may have gotten short-term long due to the prior day's big plunge and little recovery offering attractive covering buy opportunities. Since today didn't have that profile we might expect that source of price support to dissipate tomorrow or the next day.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held, for the second day, at 14 negatives and 10 positives. Change since 10/13 is -$0.4142, -31.12%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -1.4232%, -1.3956%, -1.4743%, -1.7433%, -1.8222%, -1.7635%, -1.8877%, -1.8884%, 1.9605%, and -2.1754%.
There's some hope as those rolling averages have started a trend of less weakening and more strengthening.
All in, these support continued consolidation but with a mild bullish bias for the moment.
Bill
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